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Okay, my first price suggestion... Here goes!
Sellers at 5 keys 2 ref:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24300999
Sellers at 5.5 Keys:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24247500
Sellers at 6 keys:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24272650
Not many sellers, because most have killstreak/parts on them. All of these sellers are completely original originals. <- See what I did there?
NOW! The buyers are a different story.
Buyers at 3 keys: (Outlier)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24055019
Buyers at 3 keys 4 refined:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22558825
Buyers at 4 keys:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23973892
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24203419
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22999526
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22404169
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21514475
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24295950
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24129517
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18308239
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23771628
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21621812
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24265383
Buyers at 4 keys 1 refined:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22657996
Buyers at 4 keys 4 refined:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24216190
Buyers at 4 keys 5 refined:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17947096
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23645797
Buyers at 4 keys 6 refined:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23674696
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21379741
Buyers at 4 keys 7 refined:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24013334
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20807235
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17071232
Buyers at 4 keys 8 refined:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24275528
Sellers =/= sold
by providing 4-4.5 buyers you are contradicting your range.
if quickbuyers are prepared to pay that much and they are clearly not getting a lot of customers it shouldn't be included in the range.
fact that there is a lack of 5 key sellers might also imply the item might RISE.
but even if that,you need SOLDS not SELLERS.
I could not find any solds that are for non killstreak/without parts that are recent.
Buyers at 4 keys counters your own price suggestion.
nobody selling for below 5 keys, so why would you want to drop the price?
quickbuyers should not be used as proof
Nobody selling below 4 keys. I sold 2 of them with parts attached and killstreaks for more than 5 keys in a few time.
You need more solds