Small market. Range is ridiculous.

SELLERS BELOW 2:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24098536 ~1.4

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24365921 1.5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24247576 1.6 (also gold) (1 week old)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24377559 ~1.6

UNSOLDS:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24381840 bp.tf price (young-ish)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24234431 bp.tf price (1 week)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24372696 2 keys (22 hours, but painted TS)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24354597 2 keys (2 days)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24343729 2 keys (2 days)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24237694 2 keys (1 week)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24230414 2 keys (1 week, also painted after eight)

That's all the relevant sellers on Outpost.

1.4 also has supporting evidence from the previous suggestion. This is a conservative drop.

Let it ride.