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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23373407 -> http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24335454
Sold for a bud: http://backpack.tf/item/95508315 Crit noob has this on the 28th of October, on the 29th he has the crown and no longer has the bud.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23696504 -> http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23907772
Sold for a bud
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23865083 Sold for 17 keys + a Noh Mercy + a Festive buff banner + 1.33 ref
The hat sold on the 5th, at which time buds were about 13.25 keys and keys were 12.66
Festive buff banner was about .16 keys, the noh mercy was about .27 keys, and 1.33 ref was about .11 keys.
17 + .16 + .27 + .11 / 13.25 = ~1.323 buds, rounding to 1.3
http://backpack.tf/item/2601389142 Here, the hat went from Mongy to MerKo. On the 5th of December http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087079164?time=1417766400 Mongy has the crown, on the 8th http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087079164?time=1418025600 Everything in the new items section from the buff banner to the last key is from MerKo, and the crown is no longer in Mongy's backpack.
Criticism is nice
First sale sold in a day and the second is what R+ubi (the one who next got the crown) will pay for the crown in their quickbuy trade so I'm guessing that's how it changed hands. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23401032
This trade has a recent rejected offer of 16 keys (~1.2 buds) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24429177
In other words, your low end is invalid.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24649198 - b/o 1.1 up for 5 days
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24644187 - offered with ~5 keys in sweets to the OF lid. B/O on the lid was 1.1. Certainly a sale value at 1 or less
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198146110288?time=1420790400 - bubbling shako + ~1 key in sweets ~1
Just a lot of sales at ~1. And the current b/o at 5 days at 1.1. I think the range is about right here