Back when keys were inflating, both ref and buds deflated, because a key is a constant ($2.49 always, where all keys originate: The Mann Co Store), and both ref and buds can be priced based on keys. Now that keys have deflated, ref should go up. We can use a simple calculation. Keys are 14 ref (according to bp.tf), and keys are $2.49. Therefore, one ref is worth $2.49/14 ref which gets us 17.78 cents per ref. Hence, ref is in the 17-18 cent range.