Suggestion: Refined Metal at $0.17–$0.20

Sellers still don't mean sold. As much as I would like refined to be worth more (and .17 does seem viable), a handful of sales does not justify the adding in all the way up to .20. Also, when there are sellers for .16, I don't think removing it from the range is reasonable. Popular opinion is going to get this suggestion a lot of upvotes, but I do not think a moderator will be able to accept it.

True, but finding out whether or not they sold the ref is not as easy as regular items. At best, you have item history, which is basically the same as saying "A sold B x Refined Metal in exchange for ???" because you can not definitively prove that real-world funds were transferred from B to A without some serious digging.

why so many downvotes on this comment? lol

I saw one with -148 recently.

It was magical

Link? I'm curious

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/54a30f9eb98d880a448b4728#comment-54aafa5cba8d88e40a8b4737

It was on my suggestion as a matter of fact.

Lol wow...

inflate and deflate are different fyi

I'm surprised that the economy literally turned around overnight.

i thought we would need another "bread and war" update but hey, i'll take it. Only sucks tho because i happen to have a ton of keys right now #RIPKEYS 2014 price.

Well, the economy balances out eventually. Keys, were inflating faster than metal could deflate. Keys, while at 17-17.33, were $2.75 in technical terms. Thankfully, they kind of "bounced back" and turned the tables on prices.

Ah it was you, i totally agree on the 2.75 thing, look at my post at the bottom

"inflation" and "deflation". You keep using that word. I don't think it means what you think it means.

Keys can not inflate nor deflate, they are constant (2,50 in store, from the beggining).

In the other hand metal DO inflates, because it worth less (or deflates, if worth more) relative to keys. You have to understand, that it is only the metal, that changes, the keys are don't. Reason for inflation: too many metal against not enough keys. Now you see, after the mass key shopping at christmas, the number of keys went up drastically, meaning, that now there are more keys than regular buyers would take in a given time period. What do this causes...? That's right, you will get less metal, because everyone is trying to sell those keys (the selling panic do not helps this either).

Regardless of redundancy, I propose an analogy for explaining your confusion: Think of it as a scale with Refined metal on one side, and Keys on the other. There are times when they balance out, and recently there was a time where they did not; key rising was too fast for metal to keep up with (Refer to my previous comment). Also, I have to counter what you said about "mass key shopping at Christmas" simply ith the fact that they were] rising far before the holiday season. Yet another thing to counter, or rather make clear, is that when sellers panic, and try to flip their items quickly, that they sell for reduced prices. This is why cooldown comes into effect for larger drops in price. I am just trying to present my reasoning in a complex manner now that I have time to support my side of this discussion. Now, down to the raw base of your argument: Inflation and deflation. I have heard the point that keys cannot "deflate," per say, due to constant value on the Mann Co. store. It's quite hilarious that you missed the base point of MY side of the argument: Keys, at the current prices (Keys at 13-13.33, and Ref at $0.16), would cause keys to be worth $2.08. I referenced the economic flip, and Keys actually are deflating in real money, because Refined Metal cannot rise in price fast enough. It is the exact opposite of the other situation, except this suggestion will soon change this scenario if accepted.

Heres a crazy thought. Refined metal is free and keys are not. Your 50 page thesis out the window.

50 pages? I think not. Refined metal is $0.16. Read the darn homepage next time.

Refined metal can be generated for free, but requires input. That input is plentiful, yes, but not infinite.

Buds were also free. But look at them now.

Theorically the possible maximum number of refined metal is infinite, in the other hand, you can't create more buds. This isn't a really good analogy of yours.

You cant craft a bud nor could you back then. So your argument is not so valid. Everything requires input as well as getting a job to get the money to buy keys with actual money crafting refs can be attributed to mining for endless hours for a few weapons.

If you read carefully, you can see that I wasn't talking about crafting buds, but creating. (New Mac users got one if I'm not wrong) The point still stands, you can not get new ones.

Okay, one more time:

Meaning of deflation: decrease in the general price level of goods.

Meaning of inflation: a sustained increase in the general price level of goods.

So if your money infaltes it worth less, if it deflates, it worth more. Got it? The "goods" are the key, the money is refined. The value of keys are not changing, again, because it worth $2.50. The value of metal cahnges. They may worth $0.16, $0.18, $0.22 it does not matter, as it will only change the key to metal ratio.

So again, what we see here: keys are constant, and metal is deflating. (NO inflation.)

@crazeeguy Your analysis is ok but that is not the only reason. A lot of people got cash over Christmas which they spent on buying keys. But the keys they bought could not be sold immediately, they had to wait at least a week because of the newest update trading restrictions. Then come to few days ago, suddenly there are a LOT of new keys flooding the market. The key price dropped so quickly. I am quite fortunate to have been lucky enough to grab a few keys being desperately sold at 11 refs on my trading account :)

I'm glad you aren't aggressive about your point, and thanks for not restating like the others did on my "50 page thesis."

i just bought 100 refs at $0.20 each. keys are going up and ref sellers are in the know! upvote!

Keys are going down fyi ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

now keys are going up.Bonus keys.

so if I buy 1000 ref at $1 each, it should worth $1?

no, it just means you're stupid and you got scammed. ^^

Exactly! This is your case too with the 0.20 deal. I'm glad you said that instead of me.

lol nice try :D

If there are sellers for 0,17 and even 0,16...well, maybe you should think next time.

shhhh you where rekt allready.

Sellers:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24457276 .17

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14901748 .17

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23752428 .20

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23758761 .20

2.49$/13=0.19$ upvote

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8753784

You listed this link as selling for .16 but it actually says .15

If over 300 are for sale below the current price, I don't see why it should go up to 20. Also, a lot of your solds seem very old. Since the price changed 9 days ago, sales older than that are rather meaningless.

They've been selling a long time - they are updated and bumped regularly and are not out of date

I recall in the past old paint selllers could not count as proof because they regularly change the price. If you can't prove any sold at their current price recently, it is worthless. The link to strife for example has one person adding for refined in the last several weeks (and even that may be over 9 days ago). There are way too many sellers offering much lower prices to justify raising the price to include .20.

If people are selling successfully at higher then you don't need proof of successful sales for a lower price.

so if I sold a hat for 2 ref before a price suggestion passed for 1.66 should that sale be counted as an outlier even if 2 ref is the most common selling point?

1) Your comment is completely unrelated

2) The price wouldn't be 1.66 if it was selling at 2 ref...

He's raising the price tho ;-;

This is an interesting little turning point.

He lowered it. it was 16 this morning.

Sellers:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24248453 .16

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8753784 .15

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23887972 .16 (not well bumped)

When there are plenty of refined available at .17 and below, there is no way a handful of sales at .20 should make it part of the range. You can think whatever you want, but it is very unrealistic.

middle link went down 1 cent this morning.

He would not be lowering it if it sold well at .16 let alone higher.

Alright better r8 8/8 m8 upvote!

Yey, come back low key price bby, it's been forever. Good proof upmoat.

Here's a little help.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24457276 - Selling @.17; About 3 pages full of Refined

thank you so much

I have noticed people on our servers selling ref @ higher prices, I think inflation is around the corner, I will see if i can find some proofs. If more proof surfaces i will upvote.

Moar solds maybe?

Seems like reasonable suggestion, but more solds in proof will be even better;D

Aaand economy back to normal, I am proud of you ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

Finally the up rising of ref. YA YEE YEAAH YAAAAAAAH!

Refined was utterly USELESS so it dropped because people didn't want it.

Refined is still COMPLETELY useless but it rises in price...

Man, this economy is very confusing.

Refined is used to purchase hundreds of items in the TF2niverse, not to mention you can craft stuff with it. It's hardly useless.

You really want to know why the keys were 3 ref once and why they went up so much in refined?

In the begging you could pay 2.50$ to unbox a crate which COULD have given you a hat. So trading 1 key for 3 refined which would guarantee you a hat seemed like a fair deal.

After that Valve changed the crates, they dropped unusuals and added "strange" weapons. so people would want more keys to get that unusual, and if you they could still get a sexy strange weapon.

After that the "hattening" came : community crates came which GUARANTEED a hat, after that hats became 1.33.

So, after that refined was useless because it would be cheaper to buy 2 craft hats than to craft 3 refined metal.

Nobody saw the point in metal anymore and it was needed just a flame for the key price to start inflating.

All these 5 refined backpack users disliking my comment without knowing basic economy, common sense or any history whatsoever.

Keys also dropped in 2013 because of the Winter Keys. After the 2013 winter keys expired the keys eventually went back up again.

The buds ALWAYS dropped by a whole lot during any STEAM SALE, because people quick-sold buds to sell the keys on the market and get games.

Nice little summary. By the way, keys dropped for Love and War too, because everyone was crafting bread boxes. Soon after, they were shooting up again.

Your solds at 0.20$:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24390846 Sold just 8 at that price.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24292747 Is rather "Selling" than "Sold" as it's hard to tell how much has actually been sold. (With 2 comments from people who probably have bought from him)

For a raise to up to 0.20$, i suggest you provide more proof. So downvote from me.

If this suggestion will pass, all the people will become crazy because the Refined up the price and the Key down so much. There will be a beautiful hype.

Anyway, upvote because I agree with most part of your proof.

I wish sellers put charts of how much they sold/bought.. Or even just a few lines of text saying sold x amount at y price. Would make everything a bazillion times easier.

A nice thought.

From a honest person.

But a lot of sellers are not honest.

They would use it for wrong information for there needs.

Thank you, and yeah, you're right about the wrong information thing. It was just a quick thought, not much planning out to it. But, again, thank you for the input.

well sweet ref is going up and atleast this sugestion is not crap

moar solds?

Anyone know why the upvote button is blurred off?

I can't upvote this. Literally. Anybody?

i can't eiher :/

The suggestion has received too many upvotes.

Im not anyone, but yes: Upvote is full (until someone is switching his vote) you are not able to give more votes for YES

This has a reason:

If an item will be pushed by a group, it will get the full upvotes!

But if this is not right (because cheating-pushed) the downvotes will be full, too @the end

This is a kind of special security --- or the full field by length of a database by accident :D

But I think backpack.tf did this with carefull consideration.

omg from when i waited this moment ;-;

ITs kinda worrying how the economy turned around this fast

Perfect example of how fast an economy can crash.

Or in this case, recover from inflation.

I don't think you understand what inflation means.

Can't upvote. Dang it.

Too many upvotes

if only i could upvote

why the Fck i can't upvote this masterpiece

Because there are already too many upvotes for this suggestion.

"too many upvotes" lol

( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

All the people up voting just because they want ref to rise and keys to drop. (Their craft hats are worth more then wink wink ;P) Its a good amount of proof though. I would up vote, but can't lol. Agreed on whoever was talking about keys being 2.75, that man knows whats up. Hopefully, in the near future, craft hats will ALL be worth 3 ref, as thats how much they take to craft. And that refined metal will be at 15 cents exactly, and keys at 2.25 exactly. This is so that 15 refined metal is a key, and what a great, easy number 15 is. And if 15 ref is a key, and 3 ref is a craft hat, then 5 craft hats should be a key! But oh, wishful thinking XD.

"sold 11,000" I choked a little from that. Nice proof. Upvote.

You do realise, that the "sold 11.000" is from more than a period of a year? This do not means he sold 11.000 at 0.20, only his current price is 0.20.

Yea, I know. I'm just impressed that he's sold that much ref over any period of time.

Ref just revived like jesus. thought this day would never come. upvote!!!

I wonder why the key value changed before the ref value did.

Easy math but hard way, same like with currencies. If you really want to understand, read this WOT.

I believe those who did and understand it, will have big advantages in future. (see my backpack, value and my day-trades)

Its working - ofc I dont tell you all and you wont have all the software I can use or code myself, but have a try ...

For the example I took other values like the economy values at the moment. (dont want to use a calculator for this ex.)

If you pay USD 1,60 for 10 Refined

and 10 Refined are 1x Key

But a key will be ALWAYS USD 1,60 on the market, then ...

you have to keep the real balance.

Fix is a key: USD 1,60

If refined is now getting more expensive (that is the fact, not keys lowering only) it has a double effect, because of 3x parts (USD / REF / KEY)

8x Refined (USD 0,20) are now USD 1,60 and not longer 10x Ref - but hard to change it! (that is happening in here and its ok with a range, not to fast ...)

Why? ALL HATS, ITEMS and NON-MARKETABLE stuff is getting more value (USD) because of the same refined-prices like 1,22 or 1,33 (for most hats), but that is not right. If a hat has the value of 2 refined (@ 0,16 per refined) its USD 0,32.

If refined is getting 0,20 this hat suddenly has the value of USD 0,40.

Effect: 5000x new votes for hats and items which will loose refined-value to keep the real USD-value.

Refined was not down as hard as keys were upvoted in the past, that is the 2nd effect. Refined was lowered by 50% during the "crazy" time. (that is 100% from the now point to get the old high-value)

Keys on the other hand were 200% upvoted - so the effect was twice hard on keys.

It was more easy to upvote them again and again to get the real market value.

6 refined per key from same day were refined was 0,30 USD - sorry cannot show you those statistics. No option for screenshot in here.

But I have a statistic for myself for every item (like on thestock exchange).

Almost like gas and oil. First oil will raise or fall, after some month the natural gas will have the same effect. (well, another reason for it but similar)

And the 3rd point in this is:

We have the pay- and the play-user.

Keys are the currency for value. Payed items.

Refined is the value of cheap and free items.

Always the pay-users are those, who decide with there wishes after items, what the rate between keys, ref and usd will be.

If ALL key-owner would say:

NO - I trade for marketable items only @keys

and free items for ref, only. (and there is no real need for it)

The effect would be 2x markets and maybe a key-price of 100x refined or 500x refined would be possible per key.

The 4th effect is all the steamgift-cheater are dead now :)

Selling a steam-account is not allowed (by law)

Selling steamgifts is allowed, but not longer possible from ASIA, RUSSIA and SOUTH AMERICA (thx god)

Well, there is a technical way, but not very nice for real buyers.

Even for a closed group with a very high risk of loosing ALL, your account and your content.

BIG amounts of keys were moved from hundreds of accounts from those areas :D

They all try to save what they can on a ROW-Account (Europe, USA, UK, Australia ... etc.) - but they need a steam wallet to buy steamgifts and sell them again. Ofc they have to buy for more money as they can sell them BUT ... 10.000 USD in keys (no need)

5.000 USD on my bank account (nice!) :P

Before they could sell the keys, buy a steamgift for 60-90% cheaper and make the money with selling again.

You can say: All are getting in there winnings now and try to save some money before the end is near.

They will have much loosings, but better you loose 5.000 of 10.000 then loosing all, aye! :)

Hehe, and the 2nd stable value (was it, no -- we thought it is) were non-marketable earbuds --- this was the hardest action for all those MASS-BUSSINES-SELLER --- they got marketable and the real price was found fast

Real Price: What a buyer will pay and payed :)

And that was the big action. The delay was during christmas-sales (all ppl are trying to sell there small items, to get some fast money, to get a cheap game --- best time to BUY BUY BUY items)

And ofc all steamgifts already sold in those countries had no restriction. Stocks are getting empty and they cannot buy steamgifts any longer ...

Sorry, my english is really not very well. In my language I could explain it easy, nice and short.

All in all, there is not one effect. Maybe there are even some more effects I did not get, yet. But those are the effects I was aware before and what you can see now within the economy.

I hope you can understand it. Cheers.

GG. "Too many upvotes"... Da fuq?

(Slight Offtopic) I would upvote.

If we can't upvote anymore, why aren't the admins making final deliberations? Kinda stupid to have an open suggestion ready here with a capped upvote count. Good job, Jim. GG.

Already answered somewhere up up up ... but I copy again.

COPY START

This has a reason:

If an item will be pushed by a group, it will get the full upvotes!

But if this is not right (because cheating-pushed) the downvotes will be full, too @the end

This is a kind of special security --- or the full field by length of a database by accident :D

But I think backpack.tf did this with carefull consideration.

COPY END

Cheers

well keys are 2.11. MY INVENTORY HAS DROPPED 30 DOLLARS FROM THIS CATASTROPHE!

SAVE THE KEYS!

SAVE THE KEY-notes, and KEY-boards ... and maybe the whales.

What you do if valve is saying: Keys are now USD 1,50 @steam shop :D

And the new key for crates is a "digital chip", but the old key can be bought still. If you are now thinking on a catastrophe, what is this? Armageddon? :D

No one has a right of winnings ... well beside Valve :P

I have loosing (community value), too. Around USD 300,- (USD 500,- spent during december and those USD 300,- => USD 800,- less)

But the value on the steam market is almost same.

2 Options for you:

1) Sell all and buy yourself some nice games and quit trading

2) Wait and maybe the new economy will open you a window (or will recycle you and maybe me) :)

volvo is love

volvo is life

.19-.20 cents sounds about right, The average price of a 1.33 ref genuine craft hat on the market is .25-.27 cents. The sales on the market are all the proof needed. upvote!

Yes, you are right. But upvote is already full. We are awaiting the closing/approval of this suggestion.

Approval of the suggestion is what is going to happen.

If approved, the new price suggestion is the new price (price-range).

Who has to approve it? Which time has to be past and what is automatic or hand-made? ... hmm... never thought about it ...

I have no idea what has to happen now. I wont start any new suggestions. My english is not good enough for a good (long) suggestion-post. I dont know the other side. (the other side, dark is ... SHUT UP YODA and eat your toast)

I think going to bed, sleep and starting the browser after my morning coffee is a perfect idea --- waiting is the most time a good solution (someone else will fix it ... or not).

Waiting is not a good solution if you see an exploding vulcano or an incoming tsunami , but in this case ... gn8

why cant i upvote?

Too many upvotes already, it reached it's max.

wowow you just have 1 ref, i just realized that.... :p

Just wait till Until next Friday, Keys will skyrocket to mars(In ref that is)

That's exactly what's going to happen. What these people don't realize is that the rich is cashing in on this severely. Those who sold all those keys at "Skyrocketted prices" at 17 refs guess what they're doing now? Buying tons of keys at a low price of 10 refs nowadays nearly doubling or who knows quadrupling their backpacks while the poor are here conversing whether or not to up the ref and yet they're laughing at us while we sit here voting on these shenanegans. Haven't you guys figured out that keys are the only thing that matters? When will you learn?

QUOTE ""Haven't you guys figured out that keys are the only thing that matters? When will you learn?"'

ANSWER => Haven`t you figured out that HARD CASH is the only thing that matters? When will you learn?

Well, and even cash is not drinkable, eatable or spending you electricity ... well ... maybe a warm house, if you burn the cash after inflating :D

But the reason you are inventing is not true and more a plot.

Get yourself familiar with finance markets, world economy and "living" markets.

Or read my short WALL OF TEXT (upper)

Believe it, or not. My backpack is the proof that my system is working. Does not matter if prices are falling, raising or whatever.

That is just the normal way, even on a stock exchange @Wall Street

And effects can be different in all ways (political, weather, need, new technic ... and and and)

There are always day-loser and day-winner with shares and stocks, but the point is to make more winnings then losings at the same day and never get in all your money in one stock.

In here its almost same. We have long term items. Short term items and the middle of it.

And of course I have losings too - but the heck - I never spend more money on steam then USD 300,- in my life :D (before the trading-thing)

I could lose 90% and would still have winnings (steam wallet) to buy some nice games.

Well, I am not doing it for profit. I am playing the best freeware finance simulation ever. Steam Trading v2.0 - the profit is a nice effect.

Trade like this, and you will have fun again.

Why can I only downvote?

Sure are draggin those bp.tf feet.

Is it because someone doesn't like the range?

For some reason bp won't let me upboat

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23752428[/url] - sold a bunch at 0.20

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24292747[/url] - selling for 0.20 and has buyers

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21525872[/url] - sold out at 0.21

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24168351[/url] - selling for 0.17 if you go first, 0.20 if he goes first

Most sellers at and below 0.16 sell very quickly, compared to how other sell. 0.17 up to 0.21 does sell, but 0.21 is a bit uncommon, with only 1 significant buyer, who is paying in installments. 0.17-0.20 represents the market, so you have my upvote.

How come i can only downvote? Bp.tf exposed for their price manipulations. They say read the rules. I bet my 100+keys they havent read them nor abide by them.

There is a maximum limit of +1000 likes and -1000 likes on a suggestion. For example, there cannot be more than 2000 likes when there are 1000 likes. There cannot be more than 4000 likes when there are 3000 likes. It was initially imposed when the site was smaller to combat manipulation attempts / trolls. But it is archaic now and probably be removed.

Anyways, please keep spam out of suggestions. Don't post unless you have a comment directly pertaining to the quality of the proof in the suggestion. If you have no proof to support or refute the suggestion, just upvote or downvote. If you want to have a discussion, use the forums.

Thanks polar!

So, when will this be finalized if we can't upvote anymore?

It should really be worth around $0.20-$0.21

proof pweese?

I used http://metalcalculator.tf/

I updated the priced of keys and buds to what they are now and the price of refined turned out to be that exactly

wtf I can't upvote?

It happens when theirs too many upvotes.

Is it just me, or is this just not enough proof for a currency? I feel like it isn't enough, but I could be wrong. (Could someone tell me if this is enough proof for something like this, for reference later?) Proof that's there does look solid. Remaining neutral for now.

check market, there are very little sellers... This is about average for Ref... keys and buds require more proof.

Why am I not allowed to upvote this? Only the x option is available...