This cosmetic is currently sold at 9-12 ref, and was at 1-1.5 keys a week ago. Proof below:

Sold at 9 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24404175

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24496435

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24484928

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24438887 (3 sold)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24496563

Sold at 10 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24442434

Sold at 11-12 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24419629

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24287461

Sold above 12 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24425901

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24432350

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24392648

(Earlier trades when it first came out, hence the higher price - all are at least a key)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24368961

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24281162

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24378999

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24365920

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24367638

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24264240

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24260603

A lot of people are trying to buy all new cosmetics for a lower price, but this one is in especially high demand. Few and ignorant people are selling them to these people.