Price Suggestion
~340 keys
frostbite
Unusual Bear Necessities Frostbite
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Adityas previous proof had an error, I have fixed the error in the proof and have resuggested a new price.


Sold For 6 Pure


http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24473892#latest


Foxie Sold His for an RA Luckyshot (7.75)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24142689


RA Luckyshot : Buyouts at 8 on outpost

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24410101

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22735196


Acounting for overpay : Because the Bear was offered on the Luckyshot and the Luckyshot buyout was 8, bear*0.9=Lucky so Lucky/0.9=bear, so bear=8.6


#Edit Mini on the RA LuckyShot Credits Apothic

Found a sale http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24172522 Hellfire Towering Titanium 8.5*0.9 = 7.65 buds, doesn't change much the value of the trade though.

Btw, found the most recent trade of Foxie http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24170034 B/O 90 keys but keys were 12.5 at the time so the offer doesn't exceed the B/O, so that's ok.


I know the price range is quite large, but from current offers I had on the bear 6 almost seems to be an outlier. However because there are only 2 relevant sales this must be the range.


BTW PROOF THAT I GOT OFFERED THE BEAR

http://i.imgur.com/Xgil59o.png

    Sorry I was mistaken about who made the offer. I do believe that the range. Thanks for resuggesting

      Your calculation is wrong. You shouldn't be using the b/o of the RA Luckyshot but instead, you should be using the mini suggested price which is ~7.7 buds. Since no overpay is applied, a range of 6-7.7 buds would be correct.

        Why would no overpay be applied? The Bear was offered on the luckyshot and overpay was expected....

          Yes because the bear was offered on the lucky shot, you don't apply overpay on the lucky shot.


          To summarize it all:

          If X is offered on Z and you are pricing X, you don't apply overpay on Z.

          If Z is offered on X and you are pricing X, you apply overpay on Z.


          Hopefully this didn't just confuse you even more...

        I would've said "you manipulative bitch". Then I saw the proof. Now I see why Adityas was wrong. Upvote!

          There's no reverse overpay or w/e you did.


          B/O's doesn't matter, it's what they actually sell for.

            the calculation was done with 7.7 not the buyout of the hat. And the hat was offered on the luckyshot indicating that YES........overpay should be required

              That's not how suggestions work, I'd suggest re-reading the unusual guide and read Aaron's post. Sums it up pretty much =P

                Dude. Just resuggest with whatever overpay stuff is required. Your hat is going up regardless.

              where does your high-end come from?

                comes from the price of the luckyshot and overpay applied to the bear offered

                  if the bear was offered, no overpay should be applied therefore that sale would be 7.75 but since it is outdated, it requires a mini

                The 6 pure sale was a quicksell. Sold in a day.

                  Yeah, the issue of reverse overpay. There is disagreement even among the mods about whether reverse overpay should or should not be calculated. What ended up happening was that reverse overpay was artificially causing a lot of hats to get "inflated" values. A hat was traded 1:1. One was priced at 10. And reverse overpay gave the other hat a value of 11. In the end, we decided to do away with reverse overpay and told people to take the hat values at 100%. of their value. So in this case, just 7.7, not 8.6.


                  Really we ask people not to calculate reverse overpay because a lot of hats are outdated and have inflated values. We didn't want to exacerbate the issue.

                    Sorry but maybe you can answer a simple question. How did the first price suggestion even get accepted? It was faulty. Not only is the lower end CLEARLY a quicksell since it sold in less than 1 day, but the upper end of the last suggestion was completely false. The information provided was COMPLETELY FALSE. I'm just puzzled how the suggestion was accepted in the first place. I had offers of 9-10.

                      "The information provided was COMPLETELY FALSE" - how could we possibly know which was offered.


                      http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24142689 - the only thing suggested here was that you were the one doing the offering first and then you guys worked something out.


                      And as for your other point of the quicksell. Outliers are defined by deviation from the mean and not the time it takes to sell. I paid 6 pure. And there seemed to be another sale at 7. Seemed straightforward enough. If you do indeed have offers >7.7, feel free to remake the suggestion. Offers 7.7+ would suggest that 6 is an outlier - not because it sold fast - but because the value of the sale is far from the other sale and common offers.


                      Anyways, mine won't be resold for a long time. So if you happen to sell yours, that may help as well in terms of identifying the outlier.

                        "how could we possibly know which was offered."- You could have asked?

                          With the 1000 unusual suggestions going up in a month people are not supposed to add every seller and ask them, not only would most sellers be annoyed by this it also takes a huge amount of time. That's why usually overpay is applied unless it was offered on the trade.

                            Woifi is off on his estimates. It's more like 2-3k suggestions a month. In each suggestion 2-6 sales typically. So no chance of adding 10k plus people a month.


                            At the end of the day, if a mistake is made someone can resuggest like you have done here. Closing for now. You can resuggest at 6-7.7 as is. Or, if you can show that 6 is an outlier with consistent offers 7+, you can resuggest at 7.7 flat or 7.7 - (your highest valid offer)