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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24136779 Sold for 21 keys + Taunt Conga . At the time, buds were ~11.25 keys, making this ~2 buds. thanks aaroncsn for the proof.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24128162 - sold for buds + australlium wrench making it 2.6~
That is wrong Umbreon. You do need to apply overpay on Australiums as well.
Only Clean HOUWARs, Max heads (non-level 1), buds, keys, refined, and cash trades are exempted from overpay calculations.
Overpay has already been applied. Australium Wrench = 26 keys . 26 * 0.9 = 23 keys.
Buds at the time of the sale = ~14.5 keys.
23/14.5 = ~1.6 buds. + 1 bud = 2.6 buds.