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16 month old price!
Sale 1:
Sold for 1 bud
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24597394
http://i.imgur.com/mmHsTvi.png
Sale 2: (invalid sale, clear outlier)
Sold with Towering Pillar of Summer Shades (1.3) + Blizzard Ketche (13/15) for Blizzard Tyrant's Helm (offered on, no overpay)
X + 1.3 + 0.87 = 2.25
X = 2.25 - 2.17 = 0.08
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24421218
http://i.imgur.com/lV48kXO.png
Sale 3:
Sold for Aces High Professor's Peculiarity* (1.6*0.9) = 1.44 (rounding to 1.4)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23441472
Notes:
For valuing the buds, I'm using the price at the time of sale.
Aces High Professor's Peculiarity's value was not outdated at the time of sale.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24597394 - B/O of 15 keys (1 bud)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24263158 - B/O of 1 bud for 3 weeks
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24452759 - B/O of 15-16 keys (~1 bud)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23441472 - B/O of 14 keys (~0.9 buds at the time)
Conclusion:
Sales at 1, 0.08 and 1.4. Due to 4 trades with B/Os revolving around 1 bud and a recent sale at 1 bud, I'm valuing this at 1 bud flat.
Feel free to support/counter my suggestion!