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First time pricing by buyers. if you have any constructive criticism, support, or counter-proof, let me know below!
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24528923 - 6 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22717698 - 6 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24446723 - 6 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20263813 - “I’ll pay near or exactly Backpack.tf prices” (6 ref?)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24523679 - 7 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19028858 - 7.33 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24691838 - 1 key minus 6 ref = 7.33 ref (young, unbumped)
I removed 6 ref from the range because buyers tend to lowball. Also, there are pretty much no sellers at <7 ref, on outpost or on classifieds.
The only thing is that 6 might not need to be removed from the range. Buyers don't always lowball, which is proven by your 7 ref and over buyers, and because they are buying for bp.tf price and not under, it is not considered a lowball. I think you might need solds to strengthen the suggestion.
These are the sellers and solds I have found so far:
Sellers at 10 ref:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24671144 (1 old)
Sellers at 1 key:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24670294 (1 day old, 6 in stock)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24665999 (1 day old, 11 in stock)
Sold at 1 key:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24656346 (sold in 2 days)
6 ref is absolutely a lowball. However, I'm hesitant about pricing it at 1 key yet, because of that 10 ref seller.