Suggestion: Refined Metal at $0.15

Please keep from making generic comments about what prices should be or what the economy is doing as a whole. For those kinds of comments, make a thread in the forums. The suggestion is for assessment of the proof ONLY. Comment only on the quality of the proof provided or if you have additional proof supporting or refuting the range suggested.

PLEASE keep the suggestion clean so that both the mods and the community can actually identify comments that support or refute the suggested range. Spam only makes it a lot harder for everyone to identify helpful comments. If you have nothing constructive to add, please just provide us with your vote and move on to another suggestion. Thank you.

From what I've taken notice of, this is what happened: keys began the inevitable crash, which apparently traders saw as an investment opportunity in refined. They began buying up all the ref they could. which almost caused the price to rise, but couldn't sell the ref they bought, which is why the price didn't rise.

This is just what I've been able to piece together.

Every civilization has its decline, as does this "society" of traders. It's analogous to the Great Depression, except the currencies have not rebounded to our satisfaction. In an optimist's view, we could potentially break the trend over time. As you said, a crash was going to happen some time.

People will hate my comments as usual, so let it roll.

Prices OVER your Suggestion

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24168351 ,17 or ,20 USD

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17587257 .30 USD

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23752428 .20

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12419098 .20

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24549559 .16

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24459244 .17

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23651936 .18

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13259981 .20

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16140132 .17

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23758761 .20

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24624492 .20

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24545525 .20

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24347362 .17

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24629612 .16

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23897527 .20

So yeah... Downvote

People will always try to sell items for more than bp prices, but that doesn't mean they will be successful. Do you have any proof that any of these sellers have actually sold any refined for their current asking price?

How does The Suggester know how much they sold?

He just listed their Stock and their Price. Nothing else

Just the fact that they're willing to sell that low should be evidence enough that the current price of refined isn't accurate.

But the amount of sellers selling over .15 Cents Is Significantly more than that people selling under .15 cents...

Think about that

But if there are people selling for less, why would you bother with those selling for more?

Think about that.

Actually, he's showing they can't even sell for 15 cents.

Except they are selling for higher than 15 cents.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24459244

http://tf2-trader.com/index.php?topic=28034.0

Price of refined dropped when the sellers looked at the last suggestion and saw it deliberately withheld from acceptance for over a week despite the supporting evidence.

If we're going to drop the whole "small market and why would people pay more when they can get for less" reasoning in on this suggestion, and that automated bots are now happily accepted on key suggestions I think I'll just leave this right here.

https://marketplace.tf/items/5002;6/Refined%20Metal

Sales of over 5000 refined in the past 10 days, ranging from 0.17 to 0.19 depending on the day.

Trumps the sales AND stock of all these sellers combined.

Keys and buds sell for way above the regular market price there as well. People pay more for the added security. How we factor that into a price range has always been up for debate. In the past, we have ignored sites like marketplace in favor of common sellers on other sites. It's not fair to tell someone that refined is worth 19 cents when only people with access to marketplace can sell for that much. Marketplace isn't open to everyone.

Last suggestion was left up for so long because very little proof was provided for the high end. OP didn't really show sales happening at 17. We frequently leave suggestions like these up for a while because it's very hard to figure out trade points when most sellers for refined --> real world money have trades up for months and are constantly changing their prices.

Just because marketplace is selling at 19 cent doesnt mean the sellers -get- 19 cents.. You know that. Besides what the sellers get for refined, wether it be on marketplace or direct sales is not the issue it is what the buyers end up paying for it, and how much is being bought at what price.

Ive just given you 5000 sales of refined from between 0.17 and 0.19

I invite you or the OP to provide even half that amount of sales at the suggested price range.

The sellers in that proof OP provided do not even have 2500 refined to sell between them.

If marketplace.tf consists of 66% or higher of the total amount of refined sold, then you can no longer dismiss it as something other than the regular market price and must start taking its pricing with ALOT more weight.

Its there.. it is selling more refined than anyone can prove is being sold on tf2trader,outpost,sourceop combined.

As I indicated, it's not fair to set the price of refined to 19 cents for EVERY single trader in the community - which is what we would be doing - when not everyone has access to marketplace. The price of refined should be based on what the average trader can reasonably expect to receive if he/she put his own trade up selling metal for money. And the average trader cannot sell for 19 cents.

Id like for you to not bounce around this issue Polar, it is quite important for refined pricing, and you know exactly where I am going with it...

At what point does an amount being sold at a specific price point enforce the price on bp.tf, 50% of all sales, 60%? 75%?

The OP cannot show that even 20% of ALL the sales of refined in the past 10 days have been at his suggested range.

If marketplace.tf consisted of a 90% market share of all refined sales would you still attempt to use that logic of what an "average trader" would get.

There is absolutely nothing here to suggest that marketplace.tf's market share on refined is any less than that.

Bp.tf is here to reflect the common price points for items, based on amount sold and price. I have given you 5000 pieces of refined being sold between .17 and .19.

Show us [you, op or anyone willing] 500 pieces sold at .15 or lower to show that less than 90% of all refined sales occur on marketplace.

I've been an admin on a pretty big trading site for 2 years. Lots of hours, games, lvl 40 steam level. 6000+ trades. Pretty big bp. Are you telling me that if I post a trade on outpost selling refined for 17-19 cents I will be successful? There's no way. And if a person with as much experience in trading, even paypal trading, as me can't sell for that much, it has no business being in the range when we are looking to set prices for the AVERAGE trader. I'm happy to test this out. I have more than enough refined lying around on alts to give it a go.

You have cash trading experience? I couldn't find your cash rep thread anywhere Polar Id be interested to take a look at it if you wouldn't mind? :).

Let us stick with the average trader point for a moment before bringing it back to the crux of the issue.

Here is an average trader: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24459244

Here is a sale in the past 10 days of 365 refined at 17 cents: http://tf2-trader.com/index.php?topic=28034.0

Now back to the point and let me put it to an extreme to try to get an answer.

If marketplace.tf's market share of refined sales was 99%, would you still attempt to enforce a price point of what 1% of the refined is being sold for.

Right now you cannot show it is less than 90%, Id think that would be high enough if the answer to the above question is no.

You either flat-out don't understand polar's point or you are being deliberately obtuse. I'm sure polar has better things to do so how about you respond to a few points of mine please:

1) The point of the bp.tf price and the point of marketplace.tf are fundamentally different. Backpack.tf is attempting to find the current price that an average buyer can receive (thus also what an average seller is willing to pay, ceteris paribus). The goal of marketplace.tf is to find the HIGHEST price that a large enough (read, not average) segment of the market will bear. Marketplace.tf wants to maximize profit. You are comparing apples and oranges here.

2) Additionally, the market for refined (and the market for in-game items in general) is not a perfect, flat, free market. Marketplace.tf has certain advantages (volume, integration with PayPal, trust, bots always online, etc.) that an average seller won't. Thus, when someone buys refined from Marketplace.tf, they aren't playing 100% of the money purely for the good, they are paying for a good AND service - in essence, people are likely willing to play a small premium for a fungible good on marketplace as compared to an 'average' seller because of these advantages. Again, apples and oranges.

3) You are asking polar (et al) to prove a negative which is ridiculous. If you can definitively prove that marketplace.tf is responsible for 90% or 99% or all sales of refined metal within a reasonable time-frame, then by all means put up a price suggestion on here. Let's try the reverse of your hypothetical, if marketplace.tf decided to have a sale and sold refined at 10 cents each, and it could be shown that those sales constituted a vast majority of all refined sales at that time, would refined then be 10 cents on a 'global' scale? What if they sold ref for 2 cents?

Morning B0x, nice to see someone trying to debate the points I made. I have litrally -just- woken up, so I'll reply to your points in about an hour okay? :)

Alrighty breakfast done. Happy to respond to your points B0x, you've been around on the tf2 scene for quite a while so its nice to see someone with some intelligence raise some fair points, albeit a few misconceptions about marketplace, and the point I was raising.

The point of bp.tf is to establish the price point of a specific item, based on verified sales and amounts at that price. I think everyone agrees that is the purpose of allowing these mods to set or change a price based on the user giving proof to give weight to their suggestion. Apples and oranges: One is a place which records a price of an item based off people and places selling the item, the other is a place which sells the item.

I do not know if you have ever been on Marketplace.tf B0x but they do not establish a specific price on items. It is a free market where users uploading items onto there often undercut each other, vying for sales. The supply and demand of the items on the site sets the price, if there was less demand then the price would go down accordingly. The point is there is demand, refined is being sold in large quantities on there and noone here wants to accept that it accounts for a large proportion of the refined sales every day.

Absolutely agreed, people pay extra for the service. The convinience and safety weighs into the added price. Just as how people can pay a premium using automated bots purchasing other items, tour of duty tickets, keys, paints etc. They're always online, you do not have to muck about with the "Hello I would like to buy X" routine. Quick and simple. If such convinience services are allowed to be used in evidence in other suggestions then it must be a whitelist across all items, especially when these services, in this particular case, amounts to 90% of the transactions. Basing a price on 10% or less is not an accurate reflection of what the average user is paying for an item. Which brings us tidily onto the third point

I am asking anyone to show sales at the price range trying to be suggested, you are correct. Throwing links at people is a convinient and timesaving way to make a suggestion. It forces the mods, and voters, to go through each one, check for sales, who is paying the fees, does the user have an adequate amount of cash reputation to be deemed a trustable seller etc, it all factors into the price.

I think we've already established that Marketplace is not a controlled market, and therefore could never have a sale. But yes, to answer your theory. If marketplace had a 99% marketshare of all sales in refined, and it had a sale at 2 cents, bp.tf should record that temporary adjustment. Just as when valve had a sale on tour of duty tickets, the tour ticket:refined price rapidly dropped and bp.tf recorded that change.

I will not pander to the "Do it yourself" mentality. These price suggestors want to spend their time trying to change the price of a virtual item, I say good luck to them.

~~~

It is very easy for the suggestors to say, "The market is small" when you exclude such a large portion of it. It is about time we stop giving these poor voters half a meal and give them the whole nine yards instead.

Thanks for the cogent response - Nice to have a good discussion here rather than what can happen in these suggestions.

1) I have indeed been to marketplace.tf and have even used the service a few times. I do agree that supply and demand is at play on the site, though again would quibble with using it as a proxy for the TF2 economy as a whole. While the sellers are subject to competition among other marketplace sellers, we are still talking about a pretty small group of people. They aren't subject to nearly as much competition as the 'average' seller would be. I'm also not sure the disagreement is over how large a proportion of refined sales that marketplace.tf takes up (a number that to be fair we likely can never be sure of), but whether that proportion matters at all.

Additionally, we are only looking at one part of the marketplace.tf sales. When it comes to items in general, I would think it fair to say that a significant chunk of the items sold on marketplace were purchased from elsewhere - whether from people buying backpacks or any number of other means. I'm not saying that is how every item the marketplace sellers sell is acquired, but I think you'd agree that this accounts for a certain portion. These are also sales, and thus it would be fair to include this information in any perfect price suggestion. However, we don't have access to that data. What we can assume is that marketplace sellers are selling items for profit, and thus paid less than marketplace.tf prices for said items. We are missing a significant chunk of true sales but excluding this point.

2) You provide an interesting point about trading bots. However, while they do have the convenience factors that you stated, I'd posit that cash trading is still a bit different, and marketplace.tf has other specific advantages (PayPal integration is a big one for me personally, etc.) that trading bots wouldn't have. This provides the opportunity to put a premium on prices that the 'average' seller simply can't.

Additionally, the way I have seen many popularly accepted suggestions use bots is as a ceiling or floor for items traded for other items (obviously usually currency like keys or refined). There are suggestions that show bot sales in the middle of a range, but usually the theory is that if I can buy/sell from a bot for 'x' price then I wouldn't bother buying/selling from an Outpost trader for a worse price. First, it is important to note we aren't talking about cash trading in these instances which is a very important distinction to make. Second, an analogy - Let's say that scrap.tf is offering to sell keys for 15 reined and has 200 in stock. If I'm making a price suggestion for keys and use that as supporting proof, I'm not saying that 15 refined should necessarily be in range, what I'd be saying is that if I can buy keys for 15 ref a pop from scrap.tf bots then anything above 15 ref should likely not be in range (unless other proof proves that untrue). However, that doesn't mean that 15 ref is in range. All it does is help set the theoretical ceiling. Other sales determine whether 15 ref is commonly traded or if scrap.tf is an outlier.

3) Asking for proof is a valid request. I understand your suggestion regarding a sale, though I would note that tf2shop.net (back when it likely controlled more of the market) did have a few key sales (for 1.99 I believe though I could definitely be wrong here) as an experiment. These keys sold out very quickly. I don't believe this should have impacted the price of keys, if in theory backpack.tf had a price suggestion available for keys in terms of cash. I will also quibble with your ToD Ticket point, as there is a step being missed. Bp.tf didn't change the listed price of ToD tickets because Valve put them on sale, bp.tf changed the listed price of ToD tickets because tickets (again, average sellers and buyers are key here) were being bought and sold for a lower price in response to Valve cutting the price. This seems pedantic but is in reality a key distinction. Again the price was still set by what the average person could buy/sell tickets for, it's just that said price was impacted by an outside event (Valve's sale).

You're welcome. You raised some valid points in a polite and succinct manner, you deserved to be responded with the same respect =) Appologises for not responding sooner I have been and am currently incredibly busy with other things.

I am going to be pretty concise with my reply, for one because I can see our discussion getting longer in terms of replies to each other, and frankly because it does not matter, Polar will bullrush this suggestion through regardless as his opinion is the only one which matters. These suggestions would work exactly the same without the voting, or these comments :)

Agreed about using it as a proxy, but the data needs to be included nonetheless.

And I would agree also, that really is the issue, at what proportion would it matter. I believe it is at a point now where it can no longer be ignored and -must- be included.

Agreed again (I did say I was going to be concise.) But the same could be said with most refined sellers. It usually comes from somewhere else.

The marketplace.tf fee for sellers is 10%, wether we would include this if determining price on "what the seller gets" or exclude it based on "what the buyer actually pays" would be up for debate should Polar conceed these sales need to be included.

Yes cash trading is a little different, the different premium's bot trading and cash bot trading have are significant but the point is it is used as proof in items in which bots trade but not cash. If it is factored into the proof suggestion of one, it should also be factored into the other. You go on to explain further.

Theory is sound, why would you buy/sell X at a worse price from a trader when you can get it for better from a bot. But when they are used as a ceiling or floor that is a little different.

But that analogy is to be disputed and, you've explained it yourself, other sales and amounts sold at those prices determine wether it would be an outlier.

If key stock at scrap.tf was 200 and price was 15 refined. But sales showed 2000 sold for 16 refined on outpost or other sites it would be clearly an outlier.

However taking the same analogy but only 10 sales showed sold at 16 refined on outpost or other sites...

Point being it is the amount of sales at a price which would determine that, marketplace has sold ~5750 pieces of refined in the past 12 days, noone here wants to show any evidence of sales whatsoever to try to lower the price.

I understand your point with tf2shops sale experiment and saying it shouldnt have affected key price in terms of key:cash price if bp.tf had one. [Funny at first glance that change from key:ref to key:cash would seem like a good implementation to make.. unlikely fiskie will see this comment though]

Yes, missed that ToD step to shorten down the length of the reply to you in response to your "sale" analogy. I could have just said "Marketplace is not a regulated market and therefore could never have a sale" But it seemed a little cold so wanted to throw one back at you which was more relevant to what you were saying in regards to third party intervention causing a price adjustment.

Appologises for being so concise and most probably not fully comprehensible. I am pretty busy so feel free to add me if you want to continue this at a later date :)

theoretically, if i make 50 bot accounts, then have them all get one ref, and have them all "say" they are selling at $9001, if thats more than your amount of sellers that sell for less, than thats the accepted price.

(analogies are real)

In other words, I can say I'm selling for so much, but is anyone gonna buy it for that much? No, they are going to buy it for the cheapest price available. Now if you could prove that those sellers had many solds, that would be definite proof.

I did say show sales friend. Selling doesnt mean sold :). Marketplace sold another 350 refined over the past 12 hours.. puts it at around 5350 pieces in 11 days at $0.17-0.19. Noone has shown sales of 500 pieces for a lower price yet.

Sales don't really contribute to the dropping of a price at all. Which is why I left any potential sales out. Also, it's impossible to know if any sold without taking the traders word for it.

You're only showing that it doesn't sell above the current price. Which actually supports my suggestion.

The Ref market is highball central. So many people got their hopes up, only to be crushed by the truth: it isn't going to sell for that high.

But what If they Sold it for their Price, Wouldn't that Technically Contradict this Suggestion?

If they did successfully, then yes, it would. However, as I stated before, there's no reason why you would pay more for metal when there are all those people selling it for less.

Yeah, that is when the price rises. Unfortunately, this isn't happening in our current scenario.

not very convincing >_>

*Sigh* It's an extremely small market.

If you're so unconvinced why not give counterproof or even include proof supporting this suggestion. You know, the market for refined by USD is not that big.

You can fetch way more proof, downvote... My other suggestion was twice as better and was not accpeted.

Your suggestion had 2 supposedly successful sellers for each end of the range. I have 7 links for my price. I assumed you would have at least checked the market being that you made a suggestion for it.

I think ref should not go down imo

I'm not sure if anyone broke the news to you yet, but here goes. Opinions don't mean shit here.

never said my opinion counts...please keep your nasty stuff away.

If you know it doesn't count, why post it?

The problems start when it's in your opinion

I totally agree that Ref should not go down... Even with The 11 Sellers selling it for 11-15 cents

You had like 50 links and over 3500 Votes AND it Still got Declined

"Twice as better" how2english

In suggestions quality>quantity, and the market for ref is really small right now.

Unsolds at $0.16 maybe?

Sourceop?

Skial?

Bp.tf forums?

since outpost is swarmed with scammers, it's rather easy to find proof to get the price down from there. most of the ref suggesters don't really look anywhere else

Just leave. Go. Nobody wants your spam

If refined still goes down this will be EXCELENT for my new business here in my loved Argentina.

But I don't know, why you automatically quit 0.16 from the range? You should show some unsolds at $0.16 for quit it from the range.

That $.16 link I had was the only $.16 seller on outpost.

And what an absolute shame he's made a sale within the last week. Small sale, but still a sale.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24549559

http://backpack.tf/trust/76561198041963421

You missed out >

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24620505

Also at .16$ , with sale according to bp.tf trust rep, I'll add the buyer and confirm that later.

I am quite surprised that ref is still going down seeing as no one idle anymore, so consequently there should be less ref floating around, in turn making it more valuable.... but proof is proof.

I have talked to the other mods about what they feel about giving refined a range. Low end being what the average trader sells at and high end being the premium people pay for the security of a site like marketplace.tf or tf2shop. At the end of the day, the decision is that the premium people pay for security is not a part of the value of the refined itself. Furthermore, a very limited number of users have access to both marketplace.tf and tf2shop. Our prices are intended for the average tf2 trader who must look to make trades through independently on sites like outpost, sourceop, tf2trader, bp.tf forums, etc.

With that said, I also want to remind people that there will of course be successful sellers at 16-17. I'm not disputing that at all. But people will always sell for above and below bp.tf prices. This does not mean we will make all-encompassing ranges to account for every sale. We are after the common trade point on items. There are sellers at 13 cents just as there are sellers at 16 cents. But 15 seems to be the most common trade point-

http://tf2-trader.com/index.php?topic=33312.0 - 11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24722442 - 12

http://tf2-trader.com/index.php?topic=29725.0 - 12

http://tf2-trader.com/index.php?topic=33369.0 - 12

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24644989 - 13

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23781595 - 14

http://tf2-trader.com/index.php?topic=28533.0 - 14

http://tf2-trader.com/index.php?topic=32935.0 - 14

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24184515 - 15

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24666030 - 15

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24597302 - 15

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23552480 - 15