Yeah, if the item's rising, Killstreaks and parts are invalid.

One sold had a killstreak and may have been a quicksell, and the other sold was partly item overpay. Not very solid proof.

Too many issues here in the raising of an item's price. Items in the 2.6 key trade were treated without overpay and while giving 50% value to the painted item- a major issue as raising must be done conservatively. As an explanation why, look at the market of the genuine Cross-Comm. Numerous sellers freely available under current price. As for the paint, you yourself were selling it for 'backpack.tf price + 2 ref' prior to the trade- even you weren't valuing it at 50% paint price. The set of items just cannot be fairly attributed the same as 1.6 keys pure.

I believe an argument can be made for the killstreak being negligible given the new owner removed it. I can see a bump up in price being warranted given the two trades. However, the 2.6 key part of range just does not hold up.