After a long search through the wild jungles of Outpost, avoiding killstreaks and joke trades, I have returned with the following evidence.

Two people buying Mauls at 3 Ref (both buying in mass quantities, it appears):

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24600117

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24765996

Two people buying at 2.66 Ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22786353

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24783121

Three people selling at 2.66 Ref;

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24786002 1 day old

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24758840 3 days old

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24169390 1 month old, seems like the seller might be F2P, thus unable to sell.

After giving such evidence thought, I conclude that, while there are still people buying and selling at 2.66 Ref, the people buying Mauls in bulk for 3 Ref each are cause to raise the price from 2.66 to 2.66-3 Ref.

Any and all criticism is appreciated.