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1 in existence. 1 on market
Seller
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24831296 Looking for offers (seller asked ~ 90 keys in comments)
#1 sale
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23940852
Sold for Max Head (couldn't find the level of it in bp's histories, buyer just got it before the trade, and seller sold it right after the trade).
After tracing the buds in the seller's bp ( http://backpack.tf/item/184934731 http://backpack.tf/item/93306184 http://backpack.tf/item/93502024 ), it led me to "sazed" who was a buyer of a clean Max non level 1/7 http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24139699 when the sale occured
Assuming that the Runner was sold for a clean Max non-level 1 -> 3.3 buds low-end
#2 sale
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24082294
Offered with 1 bud for a clean Beams Batter Helm (outdated) -> no overpay : 4.8-1 = 3.8 buds high-end
Mini on the Batter Helm ~ 4.75 buds
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198013247974?time=1420876800 -> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198013247974?time=1420963200
1:1 with AF Hermes ~ 5 buds after overpay
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197972744651?time=1420358400 -> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197972744651?time=1420790400
Sold for clean lvl 89 Max + 17 keys -> 4.5 buds pure
#3 sale (used as support proof cuz estimated with SCM sales)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198110975329?time=1422259200 -> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198110975329?time=1422345600
Sold for pro Aussie Scattergun + 2 Naughty keys
Average sales of Pro Aussies Scattergun on SCM ~ 120€ on the 25th of January -> 120/2.15 = 56 keys (49 keys without fees)
-> (3.5 - 4 buds)*0.9 + 0.2 buds -> 3.4 - 3.8 buds, right in the suggested range.
Any comments are welcome.