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1st Sale: 45 pure buds.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24744039
Seller backpack before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197964782863?time=1420963200
Seller backpack after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197964782863?time=1422086400 (seems like he sold 1 bud)
2nd Sale: Cloudy Moon Crones Dome (52,5, need mini*) + 3,5 buds pure. = 56
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24529655
Seller backpack before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071491128?time=1420790400
Seller backpack after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071491128?time=1420876800
3rd Sale: Gfetti Viewfinder + Pfetti TC + Stormy Storm Nunhood + O. fire yellow belt + O. planets Brainiac + 1 bud + 40 keys + 4 keys sweets
18 + 6.7 + 3.7 + 2.1 + 2.1 + 1 + 3.07 + 0.3 = 36,97 `rounding to 37 ( No need to overpay, these items were offered on Lid)
Bp of lid seller before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198165782869?time=1420617600
Bp of lid seller after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198165782869?time=1420704000 ( he got 1 bud and 40 keys, it seems he bought another bud and sold rest of keys)
So we have 3 sales
37 is closer to 45 than 56
So 56 is an outlier ;)
*Cloudy moon crones dome .mini.
Sold for Burning menco + Vintage Strange (white) Gibus + Smoking HazMat Headcase (+Max head) = (22.04+20.87+11.84) *0,9 = 49.275 + 3.34 (max head) = 52.615 ,rounding to 52.5 (to have nice price at end)
Crones buyer backpack before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197993722622?time=1416816000
Crones buyer backpack after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197993722622?time=1417161600
if the items were offered on the lid then overpay is needed. making that sale 33.
seems to me that the 56 bud Sale is less of an outlier in that case.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24491993 -need overpay, also 1 sale --> outlier
45-56 -2 last sales.
Green Confetti Viewfinder and Orbiting Planets Brainiac both need mini's.
Also need to apply overpay on the third sale.
View wasn't outdated when I made this suggestion.
Aslo no need to make mini for low worth hat on that big trade .-.?
You're right, you could probably get off easy with the Brainiac, but definitely need to update the Viewfinder regardless.
A couple of things here. The items were offered on the lid, so overpay needs to be applied. If the lid was offered, then no overpay.
There are multiple recent sales on the crones. Range should be 40-55.
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119341815?time=1422518400 - Sale at ~55 in value after overpay
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095756294?time=1421740800 - another sale at ~53 in value after overpay (taking the duped burning belt at ~13 instead of 15)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23907111 - took a month to sell for 40 in cash (I think it ended up selling for that).
40 may seem like an outlier, but it's hard to sell halloween hats for pure and that should be reflected in its value. Range should be 40-55.
So now your sales will be 35, 45, and 46. I think 45-46 sounds perfect.