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Ehhhh...
Sale #1
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24695806
Sold for a steaming noir + bubbling hive + s.f. shotty, b/o was 2 buds, caps sale
Sale #2
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24504293
Sold for a gifted c9 impaler, 2.3 buds, 2.1 after overpay, b/o of 2 caps sale
Sale #3
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24361404
Sold for an aces sam, ~1.4 buds
Sale #4
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24715869
Sold for a steaming outdoorsman + 10 ref in items
~12 keys after overpay //outlier
*This was the guy who paid like 2.4 for it, why in god’s name would you pay that much for an unusual and then trade it for a 12 key hat???
Sale #5
Offered on a nuts oiled baker boy, they added 1 key
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24112585 ~ 14 keys //outlier
Gifted c9 impaler mini
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24836619
Sold for a s. pro. festive sniper
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24960059
The sniper had an offer of 2 buds 4 keys pure, seller wanted 5 keys, calling it 2 buds 4 keys.
2 + 4/12.5 = 2.3 buds
Aces Sam Mini
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23775743
Sold for a pro. Aussie amby, ~21 keys
http://backpack.tf/classifieds/?australium=1&item=Ambassador&killstreak_tier=3
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25044978 - sold for ~1 (logo hetmans)
Range here might be 1-2 really. But that's probably too wide. Best to wait for more sales and leave this unpriced for the time being. For general reference, when someone pays 2.4 buds and sells for 12 keys, both sales are outliers.