Hm, gonna update this, maybe I'm getting the hang of this now.

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Sale 1: Sold with 31 refined, genuine triad trinket, genuine planeswalker goggles, and thermal tracker for a Circling Heart Flipped Trilby

Sellers bp before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119858493?time=1422604800

Sellers bp after

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119858493?time=1422691200

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24590507

Trilby overpay: 3.45*0.9=3.105 rounding to 3.1

The sweets added with the baker boy is 0.24 buds.

So 3.1-0.2=2.9 buds

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Sale 2: Sold for an Australium Sniper Rifle, square dance and strange professionals ushanka

Sellers bp before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197997432396?time=1423382400

Sellers bp after

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197997432396?time=1423468800

Pricing Australium at 50 keys due to http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25007381 <-- is the same seller.

Using buds at 12 keys, and that makes the second sale 4.3 buds

4.3*0.9=3.9

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This makes the range from 2.9-3.9 buds

One more thing, sellers on Outpost are all selling for 4.

Wait, is the first sold an outlier? Let me know in the comments, not sure.