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This may be lacking in moral, but sure not in price...
Classifieds (6 PM EST):
Only 1 at 1.8 keys http://prntscr.com/64dt2x -_-
Only 3 recently bumped on Outpost, 2 are selling for offers and the other one has already sold.
Recent sales:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24882078 Quicksold at 4.22
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25000641 4.66 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24954693 5 ref (Althought the item history on it hasn't changed, since his last backpack scan he gained 5 ref in a line, and it is not in his BP)
4 ref quickbuyers:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24307141
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25020679
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25032789 (Young)
With no sellers and several quickbuyers, 4 ref has become too low, and with sales at 4.66 and 5 ref, and with a bit of uncertainty over the 5 ref sale, going conservatively with 4.66 to 5.
Not really much proof
Less than 1 full page on outpost. Check the market before criticizing the amount of proof someone has in a suggestion.