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Finished, as per requested.
Sale 1
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24898461 Sold for Twatt Swagman's + 3 keys
B/O for Swagman's was 2.6
X = 2.3*0.9 + 0.2
X = 2.3
Swagman's http://backpack.tf/item/1780349718
Taunt http://backpack.tf/item/3229827572
Mini for Swatter Thanks Julia
Sale (January 24th):
Swag + Specialized SF Sniper Rifle w/ Headshots (~21 keys; ~1.5 buds) > C9 El Jefe (3.8)
Outpost trades:
Swag: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24779037
Jefe: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24736226 (Swag was offered)
Seller's Inventory:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198022071751?time=1422000000 -> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198022071751?time=1422086400
3.8 - 1.5 = 2.3
2.3 buds
Sale 2
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24897428 Sold for Mallard Raincatcher
B/O for Catcher was 30 keys (2.5)
B/O for Taunt was 4
X = 2.25*0.9
X = 2
Rain http://backpack.tf/item/3291039322
Taunt http://backpack.tf/item/2836347361
Sale 3
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24821673 Sold for Stormy Das Ubersternmann
X = 2.3*0.9
X = 2.1
Uber http://backpack.tf/item/3455368037
Taunt http://backpack.tf/item/2779536519
Mini for Uber
http://gyazo.com/c2b52f15e19ef9ed267778c2b3b29483 B/O of 28 keys (2.3), using 2.3
Well, the third sale was definitely more complex than a 1:1 trade. Spellbound Wet Works + Stormy Storm Ubersternmann for Showstopper Spent Well Spirits, Circling Heart Carouser's Capotain, 2 buds, 2 Bills, and a bunch of other random stuff.
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198116648383?time=1422432000
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197977541978?time=1422432000
But that's obviously too complex to try to use, and it doesn't set either end of the range anyways.
I guess i missed all of that, however the other two sales set the range, so we can ignore that one then
Sale 1
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24898461
owner was offer 3 buds item + 3 keys ( taking buds as 14 keys at the time of the trade, 04 Feb )
X = 3.0 *0.9 + 0.2
X = 2.9
The both traders was priced Swagman @ 3buds at the time of the trade
Sale 2
B/O for Catcher was 30 keys (~2.5 buds)
X =2.5 * 9
=2.25
( there's no reason to misleading people into thinking that it was only worth 2 buds, when it should be 2.5 buds)
Sale 3
Value for Stormy Das Ubersternmann was (~2.5 buds)
X =2.5 * 9
=2.25
seller has private backpack, unable to confirm the trade
[Conclusion]
You did not factor in the first sale where both parties agreed that the swaggerman was 3 buds , misleading sales 2 and deceiving sale 3
You don't use B/O as the Hat's worth if the B/O is worth more than the hat. I updated Raincatcher to 2-2.5. The B/O was 2.5, HOWEVER the price of the Catcher is 2.25. 2.25*0.9 = ~2. That solves your problem for Second sale.
Swagman is ALSO outdated, with multiple B/Os LESS than current price. It means it's horridly outdated. That solves the problem for the first sale.
Your sale #2 http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24897428 was offered here http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25001467 . No overpay is needed so that would be 2.3 buds as well.
Sale #3 as been pointed out is complex.
More recent sales.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24555207 Sold for 45 keys pure(~3 buds)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25067767 Sold for Sunbeams Engi Cap(3.4 buds * 0.9 = ~3.1 buds). However, seller's b/o is 3 buds.
I would go with a range of 2.3-3 buds here.