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Finished, as per requested.


Sale 1

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24898461 Sold for Twatt Swagman's + 3 keys

B/O for Swagman's was 2.6


X = 2.3*0.9 + 0.2

X = 2.3


Swagman's http://backpack.tf/item/1780349718

Taunt http://backpack.tf/item/3229827572


Mini for Swatter Thanks Julia

Sale (January 24th):


Swag + Specialized SF Sniper Rifle w/ Headshots (~21 keys; ~1.5 buds) > C9 El Jefe (3.8)


Outpost trades:

Swag: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24779037

Jefe: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24736226 (Swag was offered)


Seller's Inventory:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198022071751?time=1422000000 -> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198022071751?time=1422086400


3.8 - 1.5 = 2.3


2.3 buds


Sale 2

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24897428 Sold for Mallard Raincatcher

B/O for Catcher was 30 keys (2.5)

B/O for Taunt was 4


X = 2.25*0.9

X = 2


Rain http://backpack.tf/item/3291039322

Taunt http://backpack.tf/item/2836347361


Sale 3

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24821673 Sold for Stormy Das Ubersternmann


X = 2.3*0.9

X = 2.1


Uber http://backpack.tf/item/3455368037

Taunt http://backpack.tf/item/2779536519


Mini for Uber

http://gyazo.com/c2b52f15e19ef9ed267778c2b3b29483 B/O of 28 keys (2.3), using 2.3

Sale 1

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24898461

owner was offer 3 buds item + 3 keys ( taking buds as 14 keys at the time of the trade, 04 Feb )


X = 3.0 *0.9 + 0.2

X = 2.9


The both traders was priced Swagman @ 3buds at the time of the trade


Sale 2

B/O for Catcher was 30 keys (~2.5 buds)


X =2.5 * 9

=2.25


( there's no reason to misleading people into thinking that it was only worth 2 buds, when it should be 2.5 buds)


Sale 3

Value for Stormy Das Ubersternmann was (~2.5 buds)


X =2.5 * 9

=2.25


seller has private backpack, unable to confirm the trade


[Conclusion]

You did not factor in the first sale where both parties agreed that the swaggerman was 3 buds , misleading sales 2 and deceiving sale 3

    You don't use B/O as the Hat's worth if the B/O is worth more than the hat. I updated Raincatcher to 2-2.5. The B/O was 2.5, HOWEVER the price of the Catcher is 2.25. 2.25*0.9 = ~2. That solves your problem for Second sale.


    Swagman is ALSO outdated, with multiple B/Os LESS than current price. It means it's horridly outdated. That solves the problem for the first sale.

    Your sale #2 http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24897428 was offered here http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25001467 . No overpay is needed so that would be 2.3 buds as well.


    Sale #3 as been pointed out is complex.


    More recent sales.

    http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24555207 Sold for 45 keys pure(~3 buds)

    http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25067767 Sold for Sunbeams Engi Cap(3.4 buds * 0.9 = ~3.1 buds). However, seller's b/o is 3 buds.


    I would go with a range of 2.3-3 buds here.