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Thanks aaroncsn!
Note by him from previous suggestion:
ooking at more recent sales
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24840903 Sold for 13 keys pure as shown here http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198009950989?time=1422494933.
Your second sale was actually 8 keys + ~6 keys in items as shown here http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197977534237?time=1422172800
The guy that bought the 11 keys hat managed to sell it for 13 keys pure.
I would call 11 keys an outlier/quicksale and go for 13 keys flat.
Done.