Resuggesting again with the advice of Zcrab and because i'm blind.

Sales

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24947915 - Offered with Pro KS Carbando RL for Beams Capo.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24921993

2.1 - 1 = 1.1 buds Outlier Doesn't fit with the other sales now.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23868239 - KaW Rebel + 4 keys.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3173873764,30120,5

1.3*0.9 + 0.3 = 1.5 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24191985 - C9 Steel Shako + S. Huntsman.

1.4 + (~0.3)*0.9 = 1.7 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24680609 - Sold with ~7 keys + SF Sapper for Stormy HWNN

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24654869

x + 0.15 + 0.5 = 2

x = 1.4 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24560629 - Offered with SF Sapper on Smoking Kabuto.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3417605031,152,5 - Couldn't find the sweets mentioned.

1.4 + (0.15 + Sweets)*0.9 = ~1.5 buds, still should fit in range fairly well though.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24948276 - Smoking Anger

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3514877977,518,5

Couldn't find any valid sales for a mini.

Pro RL mini ~1 bud

$35 on SCM

35*0.85 = 29.75/2.3 = 13 keys

Shako mini ~1.4 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24963832 - Seller at 1.5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24894708 - Sold for Bliz Dappers

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3489185454,252,5

1.55*0.9 = 1.4 buds

Kabuto mini ~1.4 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24434786 - Peace Spartan

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3389458071,340,5

1.55*0.9 = 1.4 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24560629 - Offer of ~1.4 buds pure.