Sales

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23932568 - 30 keys.

2.4 buds at the time of the sale.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24314506 - Stormy Rebel Rouser.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3351532054,30120,5

2*0.9 = 1.8 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23712540 - OF Spartan + 16 keys.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3223001523,340,5

1.1*0.9 + 1.1 = 2.1 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23891176 - Offered on Aces Chieftain.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3230134902,250,5

1.5 buds. Offer was instantly accepted. Outlier.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23768674 - Mega Strike Deep Fried.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3239738480,1119,5

1.7*0.9 = 1.5 buds. Sold in under a day, calling it an Outlier.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24695314 - $80 on SCM.

80*0.85 = $68

~30 keys = ~2.2 buds at the time.

Chieftain mini ~1.5 buds.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23059373 - Offered and sold for DP Festiviser (1.5).

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24789176 - Selling for 1.5 buds for ~a week.

Notable

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24405656 - Pure offers around 1.8-2 buds. B/o ~2.4 buds.

1.5 is definitely too low as there are several offers above that.