Price Suggestion
~500 keys
harvest
Unusual Grenadier's Softcap Harvest Moon
156 votes up
6 votes down
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Comments

5 months old price

Sales

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25131512 - sold for demonflame bubble pipe ~11.35*0.9 = ~10.2 ( http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198005299438?time=1424460565 )

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24989939 - a sale for cs:go stuff or cash

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25101102 - sold for morning glory chieftans ~5.5 + 2 spec strange pans (~1.4)+ s festive shotgun ~0.25 + 1 key pure = ~7 ( http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049343537?time=1424372178 )


Morning glory chieftans:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24472750 - sold for time wrap lucky shot ~6.1*0.9 = ~5.5

    The 2nd sale you provided as evidence for the resuggestion is not clearly supportive of the range you are claiming. In fact, the B/O listed is 12 Buds, which is outside the range you have tentatively determined. Also, at the time of the trade, the MG Chieftain's was unpriced, raising the possibility that the independently-ascertained price (mini) was unrepresentative of the trade agreement. This difficulty and obscurity of representation may be generalized for other Unusuals. For example, the seller may have been convinced that the Chieftain's would be more expensive. I shall elaborate.


    There was an opportunity for arbitrage out of uncertainty, as the seller was not referencing a community-generated compilation of past sales. If the MG Chieftain's had been priced at 5.5 Buds at that point, it is somewhat unlikely, I believe, that he would have accepted the offer, as the seller was explicitly looking for 13+ Buds in offers and declined offers which were more than 7 Buds in priced Unusuals, with the notable partial exception of the Magistrate. For example, the seller declined offers of:


    • PE Fedora + 58 Keys = 5.8 * 0.9 + 58 / 12 = 5.2 + 4.8 = 10 Buds
    • and Sunbeams Sultan + Burning Flames Sola Topi + [1/1; B/O was 4 - 6 Buds] Death at Dusk Magistrate's Mullet = (2.6 + 3 + ~4) * 0.9 = 9.6 * 0.9 = 8.6 Buds


    With that being said, your first sale was valid and constituted solid evidence. As I have explained in my argument, the 2nd and 3rd pieces of evidence are not completely satisfactory. For this reason, I would consider the range proposed to not be entirely accurate, particularly at the lower-end. There have been several higher offers on trades that were recently open. I shall allow the moderators to reappraise and decide.

      The unsuals here are priced based on sales and not on offers.

      The other recent sale of MG chieftain was for duped orb fire crones which is also around 5.5 since clean crones is ~6.1. I haven't included it in the proof since crones would require a mini since it's duped, tho I'm pretty sure that it'll be around 5-5.5 after all.

      What is more, the seller of the softcap listed that chieftain with 8 buds b/o, so he wasn't even thinking about 13 buds for it or whatever you're saying.

    Just to be exact : - With the TW lucky shot i added about a key in some random items (for MG Chieft)

    - The Harvest Softcap was offered on my MG chieft, (I was basicaly really not interested, he spammed me a shittons of offer, and waited more than 1.5 weeks before i decide )

    - Same with bubble, Softcap was offered Nah my bad bubble was offered, apologies

    http://imgur.com/NAMWLGO - http://imgur.com/8q2MJHr -