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I am seriously a repwhore
Sale 2,3 and 4 are copy pasta from last suggestion, still valid
credits to richard nixon #music for sale 1
Sale 1
Sold for 20 keys pure (1.7)
http://puu.sh/g8vRG/df5681e53c.png
Sale 2: 1 bud
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24191737
Sold for a Steaming Stove Pipe and some keys, but, since a Steaming Stove pipe is 15 keys, I'm going to assume however many keys added would be considered the overpay.
Stove pipe: http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3299547341,120,5
Dapper: http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3298836046,252,5
Sale 3: 1 bud
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24599598
Sold for a bud and a Genuine Original.
Bud: http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3432860555,143,6
Original: http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3432860548,513,1
Dapper: http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3427131796,252,5
Sale 4: Not using this sale, cannot find a mini for this exact hat.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24490405
Sold for a Gifted KaW Private Eye.
Private Eye: http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3417931173,388,5
Dapper: http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3397662977,252,5
Feel free to support/counter my proof
i don't get something. sale #2 - why is it valued at 1 bud ? pipe is 1.2 (buds were 12.5 at the time) and you copied that you wouldn't go with overpay,because of the keys
my initial comment would be that 1 is an outlier because http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24599598 - the offer that it sold for was made the same day it was up for sale. possibly buyer/seller didn't come online at the same time
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25196211 - sold for a bud in a day
however sale 2 is not 1 bud
No keys were added to second sale. Involved these:
http://backpack.tf/item/3299052415 (backpack expander, in case it doesn't show up, like for me)
http://backpack.tf/item/2419458853
http://backpack.tf/item/836947533
http://backpack.tf/item/1034380039
~ 3.2 keys, 0.3 buds.
Stovepipe is 15 keys, which is 1.2 buds at the time. 1.2 * 0.9 = 1.08, 1.1. 1.1 + 0.3 = 1.4. God knows where 1 comes from.
Looking at more recent sales
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24681959 Sold for Gifted Lucky Shot Bubbling + 3 keys + 1 ref + ~9 refs in sweets
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24708868 b/o 1 bud. Can't identify sale.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24558347 Sold for 1 bud pure (Took 13 days)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25196211 Sold for 1 bud(Sold quickly)
So we have sales mainly at ~1 bud and one pure sale at 1.7. A range of 1-1.7 buds would be better as 1 bud is the most common trading point and we can't ignore the pure sale at 1.7 buds. Accepting this range eventhough it may be slightly large.