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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24109956 - sold for aramanthine gibus (16 * 0.9 = 14.4) + 1 bud ~ 15.4, rounding to 15.5
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24290300 - sold for stare brainiac, ooze big country and aramanthine pencil (35 * 0.9) ~ 31.5, but there is an unsold at ~20
only (valid) sales i can find
mini for engie set
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24454072 - sold for mallard dread
mini for dread
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24448533 - sold for 35 buds
EDIT: the dread is now 30.5, but still makes it 20
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24250140 - sold along with sweets ~2 for morning glory bonk boy ( http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095756294?time=1419444360 ~ http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065206202?time=1419408000 )
Ballcap is ~14 (yes, it's clean) + sweets ~2, no overpay since offered, so the sale valuation is ~16
Maybe 15.5-16 or 16 flat would be better?
There is also another sale for clean burning pickle (~10), but that's another outlier, I guess.
There have been offers still around ~20, according to a previous owner
Worth mentioning that, for example, at the moment of the first sale it was 1 of 2 in existence, while now it is 1 of 5 in existence. I've had the same issue pricing MG honchos, take a look at it: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/54bdedb9b98d88d67d8b477a
but the second sale is worth more.
They happened with a ~2 weeks gap.
There are currently opened 3 trades on OP for 1 month+ each and there are almost none offers, the highest out there is the frostbite specs which is ~16.75, so I see no reason for the ballcap sale to be an outlier.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24799746 - sold for massively duped CM el jefe ( http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24938300 )
Pretty sure that after doing a mini on it and applying overpay, it will also be somewhere near 16-17
Edit: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24717273 - this one seems to be sold for cauldron cannonball, which is slightly outdated at 16.5 ( http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3217074480,817,5 )
This is being used to price the gibus. Can't then use the gibus to price this.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24250140 - the ballcap sale mentioned above was actually ballcap + ~5 for the bonk boy. Since the bonk was getting offered, that's ~19.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24759247 - duped moon jefe ~15 (mini below)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045857997?time=1421913600 - AF cannon + phantom ~20?
Sales at 15, 19, 20. It's possible that 15 is an outlier, and if someone can give solid justification for that, I won't mind a resuggestion. But this is close enough for me.
Mini for jefe ~15-18
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25047592 - b/o 18
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25248027 - 18? (probably more but capping off the b/o)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25250472 - true quicksell?
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063640894?time=1419148800 - sale around ~16-16.5
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055762286?time=1423468800 - sale at ~15 (have a mini for the duped lucha in my thread)
Mini for cannon
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097645315?time=1422950400 - ~17