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For such an abundant hat, you'd think there'd be more for sale than one!
Sale
[url]http://imgur.com/a/lHuXD[/url] sold for 3 buds and 6 keys (3.5 buds)
While I do realize that this isn't too much evidence, mine was the only one on outpost for 2 days, even though 20 exist. Even now there's only one for sale, which is asking 60 keys pure
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25287220[/url] <- the only one on outpost at the moment
http://backpack.tf/item/3486482245
http://backpack.tf/item/1651781901
http://backpack.tf/item/1650455333
You can find more sales here.
Surprisingly, the other hats weren't sold in a while.. Wow..
Yeah, for there being 20 in existence, you'd think there'd be more than 1 on outpost :L
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25344130 - Selling for 3 buds.
I also see 2 for sale on classifieds, one being the 3 buds guy and another selling for 27 keys, below three buds.
Previous suggestion accepted 23 days ago also has some valid sales still.
This seems like an outlier.
Looking at more sales and sales from the previous accepted suggestion.
1. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25371567 Traded this + 1 key for Terror-Watt Modest Pile of Hat(3.85 buds * 0.9 = ~3.4 buds). Making this ~3.3 buds. However, b/o is 2.5 buds. Cap at 2.5 buds
2. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25366099 Sold for 27 keys pure (~2.7 buds)
3. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25079856 Sold for 33 keys pure + ~8 refs in sweets (~2.8 buds)
4. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24980328 Sold for 2 buds + 6 keys pure (~2.5 buds) (Previous accepted suggestion)
5. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25045405 Sold for 30 keys pure( Previous accepted suggestion)
Summary
There are too many sales in the 2.5-2.8 buds region to give this a 3.5 buds flat price. In addition to that, in sale #3, the seller had a b/o of 3 buds for a good 2 weeks and eventually sold for ~2.8 buds. Your sale is probably an outlier here.