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Kill-A-Watt Ground Control
I told myself I wouldn't do this. I lied.
SALE 1:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069800829?time=1423900800
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24768110 - sold for 34 keys (~2.8)
SALE 2:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095183175?time=1421049600
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24418102 - sold for 30 keys (buds were 15 = 2)
SALE 3:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095183175?time=1421049600
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24273379 - sold for GE Pith (2.65 * 0.9 = ~2.4)
SALE 4:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198014889301?time=1419321600
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23449876 - bought mine for KaW Das Maddendoktor + ~4 keys (at the time) in sweets = 2.6 + ~0.2 at the time * 0.9 = ~2.5
SALE 5:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24275279 - sold mine for an Orb. Fire Safe 'n' Sound (1.1 * 0.9 = 1) + 1 bud + 1 key = ~2
2, 2, 2.4, 2.5, 2.8 - With pure sales either end, a wider range is probably best indicative of value.