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This needs a drop.
3 pages on Outpost.
Classified ads at time of posting:
http://backpack.tf/classifieds/?item=Festive%20Knife&quality=11&tradable=1&craftable=1
1*11.48 keys
1*12 keys (Has parts)
1*1.03 buds
6*13 (4 have killstreak, 3 have parts)
Unsolds at 13 keys:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25305329 (Has killstreak and parts, young)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25284851 (1 day, has killstreaks and parts, young)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25288092 (1 day, has specialized killstreak, young)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25265359 (3 days, has killstreak and a spell)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25296695 (Young, has specialized killstreak)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24215158 (2 months)
Unsold at 12 keys and 7 refined:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25253447 (5 days)
Seller at 12 keys:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25153926 (2 weeks old)
This is all I could find on Outpost that are valid
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25288743 has sold.
Edited. Thanks!
[Only Opinion]
Too early for a drop? Last suggestion was accepted just a day ago.
There are only 2 people selling for 12 keys, comparing it to the number of unsolds at 13 keys, I would say that the comparison is too big. Should probably wait for a cool-down on this first.
I agree especially with http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25288743 that being a quicksell without a bump.