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~FIRST SALE~ OUTLIER
1:1 With Miami El Jefe
Backpack before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072702179?time=1425628800
Backpack after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072702179?time=1425715200
3.6-4 = 3.8 Times 0.9 = 3.51 = 3.5
~SECOND SALE~
Sold for 57 keys - Buds were still 12.5 back then = 4.6
Backpack before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197967900899?time=1423728000
Backpack after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197967900899?time=1424160000
Sold for pure, no need for overpay.
~THIRD SALE~
2 Buds (11 Keys at time of posting) + 33 Keys + 1 Naughty key + 1 Nice Key = 5.2 Buds
Backpack before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135346742?time=1421222400
Backpack after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135346742?time=1421395200
Pure sale, no need for overpay.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25295545 Selling for 5 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25244815 Selling for 5 buds
Eh, I'm unsure about 5.2 not being a outlier. Considering 2 sellers at 5, 5 might be a outlier
Your third sale is inaccurate. There are two separate trades, one for 30 keys and one for 2 buds + 3 keys. It wasn't 2 buds + 33 keys in the same trade. You'll need to add the seller to figure out what the exact sale was. It is possible that he sold buds to get those 30 keys.
Thanks to Julia for looking into this. Sale was probably 4 buds + 3 keys. It looks like 2 buds + 33 keys because 30 keys were traded for 2 buds here - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24678235. Range probably will need to be 4.3-4.6. But you should add the seller to confirm the trade value.