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Hey. I think this will stir a ton of controversy, just like what happened with my Death at Dusk Team Captain suggestion. Oh well.
#StopOverflatingNewUnusuals
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The Sales
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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24722147 - Sold for a Sunbeams Pyromancer (14*)
Overpay doesn't need to be applied. Not only the mini sold for pure, it might have been offered to the second owner.
Proof: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198046847895?time=1422305595
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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25195416 - Sold for a Haunted Phantasm Jr. Killer Exclusive (35)
35 * 0.9 = 31.5 Buds.
Proof: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198041060358?time=1424880058
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The Mini Suggestion
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Sunbeams Pyromancer:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25102474 - Sold for 14 Pure.
Proof: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057487960?time=1424246400
***Only sale I could find without having to do 50 million mini suggestions. Only pure sale I could find after a hour of searching.
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What's the Outlier?
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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25195416 -
> Offers have been consistent around 15~20 Buds before any overpay.
> This took nearly 1.5 months to sell.
> Bob collected this hat. Making it seem like it was massive overpay.
Taking 14 as the final price. It can sell for a bit more for sure (around 15 to 20), but definitely not anywhere close to 31.5 buds at all.
I'll be happy to resuggest this in the future, if another sale happens to come out of this.
Just going to make a recorrection on the offers:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24941158
>Was offered a Green Energy Scot's Bonet.
>> Owner resold it later for a Sulphurous Horrific Headsplitter (Unknown), Pro KS Aussie Mini (3.6), and a Max Head. (3.4) (~15)
>Was offered a DCO Mallard. (11.8 * 0.9 = 10.6 Buds)
>Was offered an Amaranthine Executioner. (19.5 * 0.9 = 17.6 Buds.)
I thought there were more offers, but there actually wasn't. Probably confused it for the hood.
If offers are 15-20, then 14 is low. I would say the two sales are discrepant and that you need to wait for a third sale to identify the outlier.
Bob has a hold of it. And the offers of 15 to 20 are before any overpay is applied. So, it's 13.5 to 18.
And it seems Bob just put it up on Outpost, just to spite this suggestion.
So, unless Bob can prove that it goes closer to 31.5 in the current sale, which isn't manipulated, I'm not going to close this suggestion.
Well, put it like this.
We'll take a blank slate and monitor the offers he gets from this point onwards.
If they're in excess of this price, we close this. If they're not, we don't.
That is, if the B/O of 100 doesn't scare everybody off. And I want my catchphrase back.
If the offers stays around the 15 to 20 mark, then proves my point and points out my suggestion.
If the offers move close the 30 mark, then I'll take his price, only if it is an actual genuine offer and not someone making bullshit offers.
This sale only just came up after I put up the first suggestion for 12.6. So, I think that sale is only there to throw off this suggestion.
I can let this ride for weeks. My TC Suggestion took nearly a month to be accepted.
No, because offers at 20 are 18 after overpay, which is considerably more than this price and invalidates it.
If you think Bob paid so much for this just to mess with you you've got a serious ego complex to work out.
I don't have a problem with me. If it sells over 14, then sure, it could invalidate. However, how does it prove the 30+ sale?
Offers haven't spiked past 20 at all, so there is a major gap and likely makes me think that was massive overpay for the hat.
And no, I never declared that. He's only putting it back on the market just to mess with the suggestion. If he was going to sell it, why wait until a few minutes of this suggestion taking off to put it right back onto the market with an obviously inflated 100 bud buyout?
20 > 14 though
Yet, 20 is closer to 14 than 31.5. This will need a resuggestion in the future.
It doesn't matter what it's closer to, 14 is still wrong if it's getting offers of 20.
We're not going to get anywhere with arguing back and forth. You think it'll invalidate anyways, while I say it still doesn't prove 31.5.
I'm not saying it proves 31.5. NEVER have I said that.
I'm just saying it categorically DISproves 14.
Let's just agree on this. Whatever offers comes off of this current seller will either validate or break the suggestion.
I can take a second look on the second seller and see each one and see if it leans more towards 15 or towards 20.
Bob's super over inflated B/Os are never serious, he always lets them go for way less if he actually plans on selling it or buying something with it.
My point exactly. ALL it's doing is detrimental.
I've had several people come to me and offer my buyout in pure. Whether those people ever come through is their own biz, but that's why I have the buyouts so high.
Which you can sell for whatever you want. Seems suspicious that you put it up almost immediately after my first suggestion.