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~545 keys
hellfire
Unusual Counterfeit Billycock Hellfire
1318 votes up
157 votes down
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Comments

Last hat for me. I'm going to sleep after this. Surprised it's this damn low.


#ManipulationCounter


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The Sales

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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24585517 - Sold for a Bubbling Brown Bomber (1.9) + 1 Key in Sweets (0.1)


2 * 0.9 = 1.8 Buds.


Proof: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050194207?time=1421827200


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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24415394 - Sold for a DBD Human Cannonball (4.3 Buds)


4.3 * 0.9 = 3.87 > 3.9 Buds.


Proof: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198038475864?time=1420979662


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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24085985 - Sold for 30 Keys Pure. (2.7 Buds | 11 Keys)


Proof: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112281935?time=1419355795


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Conclusion: Taking 1.8 to 2.7. 3.9 seems to be an outlier.

    I agree that the sale at 3.9 is an outlier. At least the other two sales are within a bud of each other.


    Upvote.

      The range scares Me.

      Upvote

        Seconding that the high sale is definitely an outlier since people usually overpay more with 3rd gens.


        I wonder why this is taking so long to get passed. Mods can be weird about what suggestions they respond to quickly and what they respond to slowly sometimes. I'm sure they have fairly good reasons though, they have a big workload anyways.

          Good job with proof! Upvote!


          (The range is real!)

            I think the reason why it's still up is because all three sales are effectively the same distance apart.


            If we took the mid point of 1.8 and 3.9, it's 2.85, which is rather close to the 2.7.


            We can't really just call one an outlier due to how high or how low it is in this case :P

              http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24566588 - B/O 3 buds

              4 buds is an outlier. People are not even asking for that much.

              Upvoted.

                  He wants 3 for the bucket helm, not the billy

                    yep, my bad

                    Now he;s asking 7

                  looks like it sold for scorching billy+duped miami reggae? ( http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119210471?time=1422345600 ---> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119210471?time=1423641600 ) (>5)


                  what is this hat and why cant people just pay the same amount for it

                  upvote awesome proofs

                    1.8 buds is like 12 keys now, which is probably quite low. I would call the low and high sales outliers on either end and go with ~2.7-3.9 probably.

                      You think I should just resuggest with the 30 keys pure and call it there?

                        Well, 3 sales in buds, 1 in keys. Probably needs to be in buds. Can be switched later if we get more key sales.