Resugesting price since there are some price adjustment on the last suggestion

There are two solds at 10+ buds:

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1. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24568696 - Sold for the following below. (Killstreak is +x)

Professional Killstreak Australium Black Box (2.35 + 1.45)

Professional Killstreak Australium Rocket Launcher (5.4 + 2.2)

Kill-A-Watt Razor Cut (3 Buds)

3 + 7.6 + 3.8 = 14.4 * 0.9 = 12.96 > 13 Buds.

Proof: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198076201069?time=1421308800

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2. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24662809 - Sold for a Death at Dusk Reggae. (11.8)

11.8 * 0.9 = 10.62 Buds. > 10.6 Buds.

Proof: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198130720294?time=1422518400

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Some more previous sales:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19656284 - Sold for Arcana Glasgow Great Helmet** (11.4 buds)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19380853 - Sold for Cloud 9 Executioner + Dead Presidents Luchadore*** (12.7 buds) [Offer Value: 11.4 buds]

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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19378166 - Sold for Misty Skull Pith Helmet**** + Scorching Noir (8.4 buds) [Offer Value: 7.6 buds]

Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198033657100?time=1398063600

After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198033657100?time=1398150000

Pith Helmet History: http://backpack.tf/item/1243166884

Noir History: http://backpack.tf/item/281525688

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** - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16656113 - Sold for $400 (11.5 buds), 4 months but its the only sale.

*** - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19963776 - Was willing to take 3.3 buds

**** - http://backpack.tf/vote/id/539d830e4dd7b85a2b8b4a67 - Regardless of the Pith's price it's still an outlier

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Even more old ones:

First proof of sale can be seen in the difference between these two backpack views:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198033657100?time=1399359600 - Here's the owner with the hat.

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198033657100?time=1399446000 - Here is the owner without the hat, and with a C9 Exec and a DP Luchadore. Don't see anything else new in his backpack, so it appears to have been a 2:1.

The C9 Exec has a current price from 2 months ago (1 month ago was when this trade occurred), so its value can be used as-is: with overpay applied, it's ~8.5. The Luchadore is as-of-yet unvalued, but going by my mini-suggestion, it appears to be somewhere between 1.5-2, so this offer's a solid ~10 buds.

Now, the two trades in which the previous owner made contact with the hat. The first is here: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19424596

Sold for a T-Watt Headsplitter and 70 keys.

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036550413?time=1402902000 Before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036550413?time=1402988400 After

The 70 keys have a little over a 4.1-bud value, and the T-Watt Headsplitter is ~7.65 after overpay. Thus, this offer was worth ~11.8.

Next sale:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044085776?time=1402815600 Before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044085776?time=1402902000 After

Pretty clear-cut; he bought it for a C9 Glasgow (~5), a Bubbling Nunhood (unvalued, mini-suggestion suggests ~4.3), and 16 keys (~.9). In total, this deal was worth ~10.2.

Outlier:

Outlier sale occurs here (technically before the first sale):

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198033657100?time=1398063600 - Here's the buyer with a Misty Skull Pith Helmet and a Scorching Noir.

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198033657100?time=1398150000 - Here's the buyer down those two items, and up the Hiding Hood. (Note that a KaW Beak also disappears during this time, but it appears to have been part of a different transaction involving an unusual Soldered Sensei)

At the time of the trade, the Pith was just a wee bit more expensive, putting it at ~4 after overpay. The Noir's value, after overpay, is ~3.8, making this offer worth ~7.8. The seller, Paranormal Panda, confirms this was the entire sale (his inventory changed significantly the day of the trade, so confirmation was necessary). This has been regarded as an outlier due to the next-closest sale being significantly higher at ~10 buds, and all other sales being snugly within the 10-12 range.

Mini-suggestions below.

Mini-suggestion: DP Lucha:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044558797?time=1398063600 Lucha

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044558797?time=1398150000 Post-Lucha

Sold for a memory leak soldered sensei, which was unvalued at the time but ~1.4 now.

I'm finding impressively little usable information on the Lucha, and what few offers it gets appear to be in the ~1.5-2 range (barring the occassional dubious "full-keys-from-a-new-account" offers). This seems like a bad evaluation of the value, but I can find little solid proof of a Lucha selling outside of the community market and for valued hats; in addition, the proposed proof involving the value of the Lucha, regardless of whether it's 1.5 buds or 3.5, will still fit snugly into the range regardless of exact value.

Mini-suggestion: Bubbling Nunhood:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198082673868?time=1402038000 Nunhood

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198082673868?time=1402383600 No Nunhood, up a T-Watt Fed-Fighting

The T-Watt Fed-Fighting Fedora is ~4.3 after overpay. This seems steep for a bubbling nunhood, but the magic of forced themes appears to have worked here.

Mini-suggestion: Dusk Reggae:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24335354

Sold for an Ooze Swaman's Swatter (6) + Max's Head (3.4) + Aussie Grenade Launcher (2) + Low # Strange Craft Hat (1) + 4 Keys of Sweets.(0.33)

6 + 2 + 1 + 0.33 = 9.33 * 0.9 = 8.4 + 3.4 = 11.8 Buds.

Proof: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087378197?time=1421308800