All right, let's try this again. Pricing this thing has been a shitshow, but I'm going to get it right this time goddamnit. Updated Sale #4 to actually be usable, added Sale #7.

Seven goddamn thousand characters later...

Still 1/1, but several more sales now. This thing is pretty consistent range-wise. The sale for the Aussie grenade now looks like a pretty clear outlier, so I've excluded it from the range. Mostly copied from the last post:

The frostbite base billy:

http://backpack.tf/item/3280196026

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Sale #1: 1.4 buds (rounding from 1.35)

Sale link: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24629464

Sale details: Sold 1/14-1/15, was offered on the molten mallard, and confirmed by the seller as a 1:1 here: http://i.imgur.com/CBlkoAI.png

Buyer:

★D∆rⓚnight™★

Pre: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115179017?time=1421308800

Pre: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115179017?time=1421222400

Seller:

~INKT~ Jack the kawaii Wolfy

Pre: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120376719?time=1421222400

Post: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120376719?time=1421308800

Very straightforward. I wanted to double check that the Bill's hat was part of a different trade, since it appeared in the seller's backpack at the same time. The sale was noted during pricing the molten mallard base billy, but wasn't used for the price since it was literally the first recorded sale of the frostbite base billy. http://backpack.tf/vote/id/54c4e3f1b88d8800028b6093

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Sale #2, 2.0 buds (rounding from 2.04) [OUTLIER]

Sale link: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24679580

Sale details: Sold 2/17-2/18 for Australium Grenade + 2 keys, 2.25 pre-over[pay

Pricing math: 90% of 25 keys/12 keys per bud (aussie/buds price at the time of sale) + 2 keys/12 keys per bud

Given that two keys left the buyer's backpack, and at least one definitely went to the hat seller ( http://backpack.tf/item/2564201410 ), it is most likely that they were both added. This would be 2.25 buds, and also agrees with the seller's stated sale price of 2.3 buds in items. The professional minigun fabricator that disappeared from the buyer's backpack does not appear to be part of the deal, and was probably just put on market, since it showed up in their backpack again a week later: http://backpack.tf/item/3525675122

Buyer:

PEACE!!, much easier to see what happened here

Pre: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074883813?time=1424160000

Post: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074883813?time=1424246400

Seller:

★D∆rⓚnight™★

Pre: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115179017?time=1424160000

Post: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115179017?time=1424246400

Currently listed by PEACE:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25115025

Buyout of 2.5, two decent offers so far. The robonoble is nearly out of date, but looks like it's still reasonably accurate, and the offer is about 1.9 in total items.

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ROUND 2, FIGHT:

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Sale #3: ?????, quicksell?

Sold 3/4-3/5, immediately before or after I posted suggestion

Seller, PEACE:

Pre: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074883813?time=1425456000

Post: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074883813?time=1425542400

Buyer (probably), ™폐인:트…√ :

Post: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198150699116?time=1425628800

It may have been quicksold for eight keys, using the suggestion value to leverage? Hard to tell with any certainty. PEACE may also have immediately put other items from the trade on market, as they did with the pro minigun kit. Most keys are from two people, and while the buyer's backpack wasn't indexed between those times, they're likely to reflect keys that a single source got through two separate trades, then used for this one.

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UPDATED SALE:

Sale #4: 1.36 buds after overpay, rounding to 1.4. Another fast-ish sale, had it for at most a day.

Sold 3/5-3/6, 17.5 keys in items, at 11.5 buds per key

Genuine Professional Killstreak Sharp Dresser (Incinerator/Hot Rod, 10 keys, see mini), G. Dashin' Hashshashin (3 keys), G. Distinguished Rogue (1.33), Strange Festive Black Box (2.95 keys), white Graybanns (1.5 keys at list)

Seller, ™폐인:트…√ :

Pre: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198150699116?time=1425628800

Post: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198150699116?time=1425715200

Buyer, jegalgonmye(대리):

Post: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198136817995?time=1425715200

Again, buyer's backpack isn't indexed, but the seller's backpack is much clearer this time.

--Mini, G. Pro Sharp Dresser: 10 keys

I actually sold one of these last month (similar tier sheen/effect, emerald/flames) for a Planets Scotch Bonnet. The Bonnet is old as fuck at 1.1-1.3, but I sold on the market for $29 to buyer, $25.22 to me. Estimating 11-12 keys, comes out right about 10 keys after applying overpay and being conservative.

http://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Scotch%20Bonnet/Tradable/Craftable/32

Got:

http://i.imgur.com/AXAUq8H.png

http://i.imgur.com/7uAJ0oT.png

Sold:

http://i.imgur.com/SzNcUGL.png

Other support (that is, people who aren't me selling it):

Outpost and other listings reflect buyouts of 8-13 keys http://www.trade.tf/listings/search/Sell/Genuine/Sharp%20Dresser/all/Professional%20Killstreak/1

(At the time I posted this on the prior suggestion, there was one listed at 8 and one at 9 keys, which appear to have sold within a couple days, potentially indicating that they were relative quicksales and supporting the mini price)

d0 recently listed at 1 bud for manndarin/fire horns, so higher tier, but appears to have sold: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25338912

Others:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25394268

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25392274

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25391457

Other other support:

Steam market sales are typically $18-22, a few higher/lower, which means a range of 7-11 keys (minimum is buying keys with proceeds of low-end sale; maximum is keys sold to purchase high-end sale). That suggests the 10 keys is reasonable.

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Sale #5: 1.2+?

Stormy Storm Crocleather Slouch (1.2-1.3, quite outdated) + 0.5 key in hats

(Buyer backpack unhelpful)

Seller:

Pre: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198136817995?time=1426230000

Post: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198136817995?time=1426316400

Not clear which was offered, again it looks like it's going around trade servers. Not counting this one since most of the current buyouts are actually higher than the old price (one 14 keys, http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25374869 , one 15 keys, http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25392115 ), and wouldn't be shocked if it were actually a little higher.

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Sale #6: ~1.44 buds after overpay

Bubbling Cyborg Stunt (11 keys, outdated) + S. Ullapool (~4.4 keys) + 2 keys

Buyer:

Pre: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198134466006?time=1426230000

Post: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198134466006?time=1426316400

(Seller backpack unhelpful)

Again well out of date. I'm just skipping it. The Ullapool is jumping around all over the place, very unstable.

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Sale #7: ~1.3 buds

1:1 for a Stormy Napper's Respite (1.3-1.5, outdated)

Right in the range. Not clear which was offered, as usual with this hat in the servers it seems to be running in, but yeah. Someone can use this to reprice the Napper's in the future most likely.

Seller:

Pre: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198134466006?time=1426316400

Post: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198134466006?time=1426402800

Other items don't appear to have been involved in the sale.

LONG, LONG STORY SHORT: Two sales that are not identical but both between 1.3 and 1.4 buds, several other sales that are outdated but probably right around there.

This is the last update I'm doing on this suggestion myself, if you want to add more evidence post it below.