This needs a drop.

Classified ads at time of posting:

http://backpack.tf/classifieds/?item=Festive%20Knife&quality=6&tradable=1&craftable=1

1*16 refined

6*1 key

1*1.06 keys

1*1.11 keys

2*1.12 keys

Unsolds at 1 key and 2 refined:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25403134 (2 days, never bumped)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25377612 (Has a spell, 4 days, poorly bumped)

Unsold at 1.1 keys:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25389039 (3 days)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25251867 (2 weeks)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25410870 (1 day, young)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25376254 (4 days)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25420082 (Young)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25372521 (5 days)

Unsolds at 1 key and 1 refined:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25285040 (2 weeks)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25383745 (4 days, never bumped)

Unsold at 18 refined:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25362366 (5 days, poorly bumped)

Sellers at 1 key:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25424763 (Young)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25401369 (2 days old)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25419259 (Young)

This is all I could find on Outpost that are valid