lets counter this:

(credits (sort of) to Barcode)

Sale 1:

Sold for a Chiroptera venenata homme burglerre(4.6*)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198110993295?time=1426402800 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198110993295?time=1426489200 after

4.6*0.9= ~4,17, rounding to 4.2

-> 4.2 buds

Sale2:

1:1 to a frostbite burning bandana (~4#)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070429473?time=1426921200 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070429473?time=1426921200 after

-> 4 buds

* mini on CV homme:

1:1 to a RA salty dog (~4.6**)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197995870291?time=1426575600

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197995870291?time=1426489200

history homme: http://backpack.tf/item/2072166849

history shows this hat was indeed traded inbetween

Taking 4.6

**minimini on the salty dog:

Sold for a blizzardy storm TC (~5.15)

http://i.imgur.com/unB2BKe.png (credits to BOOM)

5.15*0.9 = ~4.6

Taking 4.6

#mini frostbite:

sold for a duped PE birdcage (~ 4.5##)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066195760?time=1426834800 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066195760?time=1426921200 after

4.5*0.9= 4.05

Taking 4

##minimini dued PE birdcage:

sold for a killstreak aussie rocket launcher (5)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198102051323?time=1426575600 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198102051323?time=1426662000 after

5*0.9 = 4.5

Taking 4.5

Ive considered unpriced hat 1:1s as equal values to prevent huge devaluation due to stacking overpay

Taking 4-4.2 as range.

Constructive criticism welcome!

~Foamy :3