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This thing is a nightmare. Only 1 recent valid sale:
Sale 1:
Sold for a gifted bud ~9 keys + 4 keys = 13 keys or 1.3 buds
Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117361745?time=1426834800
After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117361745?time=1427007600
Notes:
Mini for the gifted bud:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25212399 - offer of 9 keys
Sold for a Stormy Big Elfin Deal + a Sulphurous Cyborg Stunt Helmet + sweets
http://imgur.com/wVkVTl0 - too old to use
Sold for a Vivid Plasma Tyrolean
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24512084 & http://backpack.tf/item/1671163036
It’s unpriced and I can’t find even 1 valid sale (also only 2 exist)
Conclusion:
1 sale at 1.3 buds, thus taking the price at 1.3 buds.
The sale that you reported is incorrect. It was sold for Smoking Surgeon's Stahlhelm http://backpack.tf/item/3371625644
Backpack of buyer
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135229661?time=1426316400 Before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135229661?time=1426958364 After