Your links:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25481748 1 day old, 12 ref, sold;

12-12.33 sales:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25481714 - 1 day old, guy in the link below this one (Luapfer!19 B> Cards 0.11) bought it and sold it;

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25488677 - 1 day old;

Plus classifieds, you only placed the ones below 12 ref otherwise:

5x - 12 Refined; ( http://i.imgur.com/iPugjnC.png , also you can see your 6 days unsold guy never bumped his);

Yes there is a 10 ref seller http://i.imgur.com/4r9oWvf.png he hasn't sold maybe because http://i.imgur.com/2TfBFiq.png he's offline very often.

I think 12 ref should be in range, not only most common price in sale but also sells.