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I'd make a range, but the sale points are close enough together, so i'll just go with a flat price
Sellers for 1 key 2 ref (1.1 keys)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25398353 (1 week, x2)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25307788 (bot)
Sellers for 1 key 3 ref (could round up, but easier for flat 1.1 keys)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25492452 (1 day)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23903656 (restocker)
Buyers aren't paying more than a key
Classifieds:
16 ref x 1
1.11 keys x 2
1.15 x 1
21 ref x 1
1.17 x 3
1.33 x 1
To be honest, I would go with the 1.1-1.2 key range, considering it's an even split between 1.1 and 1.2 key sellers, and some of the 1.2 key sellers have sold.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25563582
1 key 1 ref