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Gent, you're wrong. I have no idea what I'm doing wrong.
Counter. Now with nicer range!
Sale #1:
http://imgur.com/R6id4Uq Sold for 24 keys pure
OUTLIER (2 sales at 15 and 17)
Sale #2:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25333887
Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044209464?time=1426143600
After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044209464?time=1427007600
Sold for some DOTA stuff and a Green Energy Copper's Hard Top and (1.9), but B/O of 15 keys. Using 15
Sale #3:
Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088742736?time=1425628800
After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088742736?time=1425715200
Sold for a Bubbling El Jefe (outdated, mini @ 17)
17 x 0.9 = 15.3
Using 15.3
Mini for Bubbling El Jefe:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25074063
Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197982776197?time=1419118339
After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197982776197?time=1419148800
Sold for 1 bud, 3 months ago. 1 bud = 17 keys
Using 17
Didn't say you knew what you were doing, just said you knew what you'd done wrong :P
The proof of sale #2 in invalid. We cannot track the value of the DOTA 2 items. If you know how to do so, please share the method with us but after a quick calculation using this: http://www.gosugamers.net/dota2/items the value of the Dota 2 items are 6.12 USD as we speak. We cannot convert that value in tf2 items as the value of keys and metal has been changing quite a lot this period of time.
It sold for a GE Hard Top, which by itself is worth more than the B/O of 15. So, I can use 15 because that was the B/O
GE Hard Top is valued at 17.5 keys !right now! and if we add a value of 6.12 USD which is ~2 keys we have a price of 19.5 keys without considering the recent rise of the value of the key.
About the B/O:
Buyouts (B/Os)
B/Os alone cannot be used to make an unusual suggestion. Just like we don't like to use offers as the only proof to raise the value on an item, we don't like using B/Os alone to drop the value as this has frequently caused bp.tf to lead the market with consecutive suggestions every 1-2 weeks dropping the hat (see Miami Wraith). This also creates an issue when future suggestions use those values as proof when they are still inaccurate.
Exceptions: There are rarely situations where we feel B/Os can be used as the only proof in a suggestion. We will accept such suggestions ONLY if there are literally no usable sales in the last 2 months. In these situations, the suggester must show proof of recent sales and why they are not usable (quicksell, sold for more unpriced hats, etc.). In these cases, there is frequently a large buyer-seller gap and dropping the value based on B/Os might actually result in a few sales that could then be used to refine the value.
How you should use B/Os: All of this does not mean that B/Os are not useful. Use B/Os to give a general sense of your range. If a hat remains unsold for 2 weeks with a B/O of 2 buds, a sale at 3 is probably an outlier. Use them to check whether your suggested range makes sense. Just don't use them as the only proof to set both your range.
Source:http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/6033-guide-for-unusual-price-suggestions/
That makes sale #2 invalid for your range price and sale #3 outdated (as you also mentioned). Therefor 24 keys are a very fair price.
That was written with unsold B/Os in mind, not B/Os of things that have already sold.
Another recent sale
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25194286 Sold for 20 keys pure
Looking at the pure offers on this trade, there is a possibility that 15 keys sales that you presented may be outliers but since it has been sold for twice at approximately 15 keys, I think that the best way to go about this is to have a range of 15-24 keys to record all the data points of sales.
Please resuggest at that. Thanks.