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Well. If duped one has been sold for more than backpack price, we know that the hat needs a rise.
Sale 1
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25440291 - Sold for a Morning Glory Tough Guy's Toque (4.9 buds) + Professional Killstreak Minigun (1.3 buds) + 2 buds + 2-key in sweet (6.3*0.9 + 2.3 = 8 buds)
Mini for the Morning Glory Tough Guy's Toque
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25525303 - Offered on a Circling Heart Reggaelator (4.9 buds). No overpay.
Sale 2
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25402742 - Offered on my Green Black Hole Wraith Wrap (BO 7 buds) (Outlier)
Yep, both sales won't be used as the hat is duped. The clean one got offered a lot of more in pure.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20841331 - Got an offer of Max Head + 5 buds + sweet (Max = 39 keys = 3.3 buds atm) (8.3 buds)
It's safe to say that 8.3 is fine.
Feel free to counter / support my proofs.
Note that Max's Head literally dropped by 10 keys over the last month, being at 28-29 keys currently.
That doesnt mean the pricing is incorrect, however, note that this means that the current C/O for that hat is different from the C/O when it was brought up.
Or something.
Otherwise, seems fair 'nuff for pricing