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I have taking the words you said into me, and made this.
2 of 2 in the world - http://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Engineer's%20Cap/Tradable/Craftable/77
only 1 on tf2outpost - http://www.tf2outpost.com/search/243676159
Sold for Ghastly Ghost Jr Hotrod - http://i.imgur.com/a8gXqUH.png
Ghast Ghost Jr Hotrod is 3.2 buds with overpay - http://backpack.tf/calculator/55192409b98d88cd1c8b4715
History of the Engi Cap - http://backpack.tf/item/3120423089
Current owners backpack - http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198006136307
29-2 x 0.9 = 26.2
26.2 keys = 3.28 buds
rounded to 3 buds
one of the previous owner sold it for 3 buds - http://gyazo.com/be23dfb1b4acf1da59863f2b87ba1449
Proof contradicts the range.
1st sale at 3.26
2nd sale at 3
both sales are quicksale, they owned it < 1 day
shown in the item's history and here http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25375502
quicksales are invalid, downvote
Buds conversion has really messed this up. Please resuggest in keys