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Ok. Hype is dead.
These are a pain in the ass to find clean on outpost.
Sold for 11 ref:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25487680 (x2)
Sellers for 10.88 ref:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25498144 (5 days)
Sellers for 11 ref:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25552634 (5 hours)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25548494 (14 hours)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25548495 (15 hours)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25487309 (6 days(wow))
Sellers for 11.11 ref:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25552634 (40 mins(young))
Sellers for 11.33:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25541808 (1 day)
Sellers for 11.66 ref:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25551709 (8 hours)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25549669 (11 hours)
Backpack classifieds 11-11.66 ref:
http://imgur.com/iIDp2jY,4Zj68XI
Unsolds for 12 ref:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25553010 (5 hours)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25488949 (6 hours)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25548959 (15 hours)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25541760 (1 day)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25542437 (1 day)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25545476 (22 hours)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25553775 (2 days)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25520280 (3 days)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25518729 (3 days)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25504249 (4 days)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25487548 (6 days)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25418533 (1 week)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25387631 (2 weeks)
Backpack 12 ref unsolds:
http://imgur.com/iIDp2jY,4Zj68XI#1
Trade.tf states max price as 11 ref.
http://www.trade.tf/price/308/11/None
Some of these are poorly bumped of course, especially ones with a long-time open trade, keep that in mind. But it doesnt really change the big picture.
I would want to keep 12 ref in the range, just to be a bit conservative, but I couldn't find any sales. You are welcome to supply.
Edit: I just noticed that one of the 11 ref classifieds and one of the 11.66 also overlaps to outpost, so keep that in mind.
your 11 ref sellers are all super weak, with 1 unbumped, 2 poorly bumped, and all are young. invalid proof for a flat
12 ref seems common, shouldnt be left out yet and the solds at 11 seem to have quicksold, 10.88 never bumped
why go down? sold mine for 13.33 http://prntscr.com/6pacpm
Your proof below 12:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25498144 - sold without a bump
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25487680 - sold both within a day
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25552634 - quicksold
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25548494 - badly bumped
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25548495 - badly bumped
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25487309 - badly bumped
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25541808 - not bumped
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25551709 - badly bumped
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25549669 - not bumped, quicksold
Your 12 ref "unsolds":
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25553010 - young and not bumped
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25548959 - ^
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25553775 - ^
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25520280 - badly bumped
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25504249 - not bumped
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25487548 - sold
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25418533 - sold two
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25387631 - badly bumped
I think this should have a range. 11 sells quickly but can't ignore how many sellers there are. 12 still seems to sell some.
A lot of the unsolds have sold here, even at 12 ref. Seems like it should get a range.