Credits to MegaGenta for showing me an additional hat and thus additional sales c:

Im an idiot sometimes x'D

Came across this when I was pricing the burning conquistador.

For some reason it showed to me as 1/1. It turns out to be 1/2 and has additional sales.

the additional sales turned out to have been crucial!

The sales:

sale 1:

Sold for a burning conquistador (~63) + 2 buds (~24) + 4 keys

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045215178?time=1424858874 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045215178?time=1424937600 after

Histories:

Crasher: http://backpack.tf/item/3422662059

conquistador: http://backpack.tf/item/1871038148

bud#1: http://backpack.tf/item/97215730

bud#2: http://backpack.tf/item/124485862

key#1: http://backpack.tf/item/3420374887

key#2: http://backpack.tf/item/2816476359

key#3: http://backpack.tf/item/3045143015

key#4: http://backpack.tf/item/3425101935

0.9*63 + 24 + 4 = 84.7, rounding to 85

-> 85 keys [OUTLIER

mini conquistador:

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/55215629b98d8839188b459a open price suggestion at 55-70 (avg 62.5, taking 63)

sale 2:

sold + S.f rocket launcher (22.5) for poisoned shadows samur-eye (168) + 8 keys

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198019680159?time=1425110400 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198019680159?time=1425196800 after

0.9*(168-22.5) +8 = ~139 keys

-> 139 keys

Sale 3:

Sold + S.f rocket launcher (22.5) for a secret to everybody tyrants helm (220) + 3 keys

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198019680159?time=1426143600 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198019680159?time=1426316400 after

0.9*(220-22.5)+3 keys = ~180 keys

-> 180 keys

Sale 4:

sold for aces high professors peculiarity (~27) + peace sign nappers (~19) + planets hard top (~11)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198082496143?time=1424862750 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198082496143?time=1425196800 after

0.9*(27+11+19)= ~51 keys

Planets is outdated at 12-14 (= ~13) but has a B/O of 11 http://www.tf2outpost.com/search/244221411

peculiarity is outdated as well, but inless it doubled in price over the past 6 months, I think its safe to say this is an outlier.

minis:

Samureye:

sold for burning AA (~189) + 6 keys in sweets

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198019680159?time=1424987876 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198019680159?time=1425024000 after

seller had a B/O of 14 buds@12 keys = 168 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24975266

Taking 168

mini secret tyrant:

sold for duped harvest jeepcap (~65) + spellbound drill hat (~90) + aussie med (25) + aussie mini (25) + aussie stickylauncher (16)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198019680159?time=1427785200 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198019680159?time=1427964895 after

65+90+25+25+16 = ~220

taking 220

miniminis:

jeepcap is outdated, is being sold at 65. taking that

drill hat bought for vivid hwnn (~83) + 5keys +bills

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055670356?time=1427550075 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055670356?time=1427612400 after

83+5+2.5 = ~90

Taking 90 for that

Sales at:

~50

the 50 is without a doubt an outlier. Im inclined to call the 85 sale an outlier as well, since the conquistador price was way higher (~120-125) before the recent pricevoting, if Id use that instead, that sale would be around the ~140 after overpay. This would bring the final range to 139-180, rounding this to 140-180 for convenience.

Final range: 140-180

Constructive criticism welcome!

~Foamy :3