Suggestion: Green Confetti Whoopee Cap at 10–12 keys

6/17: as mentioned, it uses an outdated hat and I cant get an accurate mini on it (either overvaluing or undervaluing the duped hat), averaging it out it brings me to 11.5, fitting my range.

20: is a 2+months old sale, gonna consider it an outlier.

16: unsure sale (can dig into it further to make sure if REALLY needed) and exceeds the other sales quite a lot, relatively.

conclusion: 10-12 seems to be most representative at the moment.

Going with a 10-12 range, taking advices!

P.S. this hat is such a pain.. so many COMPLETELY invalid or unusable trades.. some examples:

Sold + blizzardy oiled baker (~17.5) for sulphurous bot dogger (~43?)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048492330?time=1428130800 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048492330?time=1428330056 after

Bot dogger outdated/rare, minis hard to set up for a non-premium (recent sales have histories where it vanishes etc ._.), Sale went down in a heartbeat (had a B/O of 50) (cap resold in less than a day). New owner has a B/O of 6 buds (@8keys each) = 48*0.9 = ~43 (but its fresh and it still concerns a quicksale..) Ehhhh..

Sold with NnB hotties for a gifted pro ks aussie FaN (Good luck pricing that)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126011819?time=1422573491 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126011819?time=1422604800 after

Old sale, gifted return, cant really use to price.

Sold for duped steaming tyrantium helmet (~?)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198014133531?time=1425713161 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198014133531?time=1427266800 after

Cant make a proper mini on the duped tyrant (huge inventory gaps, unclear trade posts: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25487408 (his notes are my mind right now) i.e no valid recent sales) but is currently being sold for 20

clean one sold for other outdated hats (e.g blizzardy brim) which likely has an overstated price.

ugh, hat, why do you suck so much

TL//DR: gonna exclude these from the range

~Foamy :3

Hat looks good on the pic, VERY BAD INGAME.

OVER RATED AF UGLY AF.

No don't be rude, this my favourite scout hat.

You're bad :)

Pretty cheap, "themed"-ish unusual.

I didn't talk about the effect though, Only the hat.

No one asked for your opinion. Haters gonna hate

u must git gud

Says the nerd.

What's that? The Counterphone is ringing!

Havent seen this many proof-less "suggestions" for ages.

I am not talking about your suggestion

yeah I saw 4 or 5 in a row this morning :D

I'd be hesitant to call the 16 key sale an outlier, when it has two sales above it. I can definitely see why you are, since the sale is a pain in the ass to quantify, but if you're able to get a more solid value on that from the seller or buyer, it seems like it actually represents a valid sale price. Three of your seven sales are at or above 16 keys.

yeah its a really tricky one. I think Ill get the histories together and see if I can match histories with keys to take that one. including or excluding the 16 in the range was the hardest part of the suggestion. Thanks for the feedback!

Honestly it's probably easiest to ask the seller directly, if they're able to show the trade history it would be much more reliable. Good luck!

If you ignore 6 and 17 you get 10, 11, 12, 16, 20 - which says 11-16, not 10-12 to me.

Id have fully agreed if it wasnt for the fact that the 20 is a sale thats approaching its expiration date (its ~ 2.5 months old). Especially with the recent key-bud development, the more recent sales say more than this one. The reason why I decided to exlude the 16 at the end is because to me, the proof is too weak to support a high end (especially since its a relatively large difference) :/ Ill hold the histories together and see if I can match keys in them. Thanks for the feedback!

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25659868 - sold for 20 keys pure within a day.

This is probably a fair bit low. I have a feeling the range is probably closer to 16-20. But it may be best to wait for some more sales here.