Suggestion: Power Surge Samur-Eye at 28–40 keys

Price Suggestion

~51 keys

surge

210 votes up

30 votes down

Related Suggestions

This suggestion was closed Fri, 24 Apr 15 20:41:18 +0000 by aaroncsn.

Comments can no longer be left on this suggestion.

Comments

"Give a man a fish, and he'll eat for a day. Give a man a fishing rod, and he'll complain that its not a fish"

Sooo: To the countermobile!

Giving advices doesnt always work, so Ill go on a noble quest to find the unfindable sales.

Regardless of this, credits to xXx_FaZe_Qu1kSc0p3z_xXx for the sale in his suggestion.

The sales:

Sale 1:

Sold for a stormy samureye (~14), bubbling AA (~10), NnB snaggle (~10.5), S.pro ks shotgun (6) + strange allfather (5) + strange market gardener (0.2)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094209631?time=1425456000 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094209631?time=1425715200 after

histories:

PS samur:

Stormy samur: http://backpack.tf/item/495842997

AA: http://backpack.tf/item/506026382

Snaggle: http://backpack.tf/item/612878154

allfather: http://backpack.tf/item/1356454701

gardener: http://backpack.tf/item/847811878

sg: http://backpack.tf/item/3007776959

mask: http://backpack.tf/item/3088694703

0.9*(14+10+10.5+6+5+0.2) = ~40 keys.

-> 40 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for a level 75 max head (~28)

Buyer:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198128436804?time=1427180400 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198128436804?time=1427353200 after

Seller:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074890690?time=1427180400 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074890690?time=1427397835 after

Histories:

samureye: http://backpack.tf/item/2510579371

max: http://backpack.tf/item/77616542

No overpay needed (non-lv 1 or 7 max)

-> 28 keys

Sale 3:

Sold + 4 keys for a GE noble (~76)

Buyer:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197997578264?time=1427958000 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197997578264?time=1428217200 after

Seller:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198128436804?time=1428044400 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198128436804?time=1428130800 after

0.9*76 -4 = ~64.4, rounding to 64.

-> 64 keys OUTLIER

The minis:

Mini AA:

sold for a bud (7 keys)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094209631?time=1426316400 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094209631?time=1426455183 after

buyers backpack matches

Sold for memory leak dead cone (15)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083859167?time=1426402800 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083859167?time=1426575600 after

15*0.9=13.5

avg of 13.5 and 7 -> 10.25, rounding to 10

Taking 10

mini stormy samureye:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24913703 unsold for 2months at 20

Sold for 8 keys pure

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045345899?time=1424739207 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045345899?time=1424764800 after

taking avg since the 8 key sale was quite fast (e.g 8 is too low, 20 is too high)

=> 14 keys

Mini s. p.ks sg:

http://imgur.com/lJquZSr avg sales between 12-15€ (=~6 keys)

taking 6

Sales at:

64

40

28

Outliers and why:

posts of one of the sellers (who sold it for a max):

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25301134 B/O 60, listed march 7th

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25341569 lowered to B/O 5 buds within a week (buds @10 when last unsold = 50 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25442399 relisted for 4 buds at march 21th, closed/sold at march 26/27th. buds @ 8-9.5 (leaning towards 8 over this time) taking avg of 8 and 9.5, B/O is 35

Even at this price it did not instantly sell, making the 64 an easy outlier.

Keeping 40 in the range because it is a different sale and is close enough to the B/O to be realistic.

Final range: 28-40

Constructive criticism welcome!

~Foamy :3

Hey Foamy :3

hello there c:

How're you?

pretty okay :P making a few votes as distraction from studying, I have a few exams the coming weeks :P

How bout you? hows suggestin' going?

[feel free to add me, steam might be a better place to chat ^^]

I will because people are disliking me trying to be a civil human being.

I countered it by liking :c I tried.

Them haters, I know dat feel.

http://gyazo.com/8ecb26b5884bcaf01e9bdb363af98897

OMG THAT QUOTE

dat drop and dat range

the range sucks, I agree.

The drop is real tho, devaluation of buds kills hats :/

This trade involved cash money, you forgot to provide proof for that :3

Not to mention both were quick sells (My trade was closed and reopened multiple times and poorly bumped)

His trade was also poorly bumped (and neglected)

But we can pick and choose our proof so upboat i suppose.

Wow hat needed a drop but this is way off, quicksold the hat within 20 mins of quickselling it for a max. at the time i had at 5 buds buds were 12 keys didnt actively bump at all was cashing out of the game. when i was quickselling for 4 buds the trade in total had 110 views with 3 bookmarks clearly people were interested (trade had 2 other unu). I agree when buds were 12 keys this item was not worth 5 buds more near 4-4.5 but this proof is so off its not even funny

I already told your friend on his suggestion that your definition of a quicksale does not match with the one used by the guidelines of this site. I have provided evidence that the hat has been up for sale far too long to be considered a quicksale. You are free to disagree with the definition of a quicksale, but please, dont call proof 'off' based on that opinion. The sale is valid.

Can you provide me with a link explaining how selling an item quickly for pure at a quicksell price is not a quicksell?

(Note, your argument that it is not a quicksell is that it was up on outpost for 1 week; which is weak to begin with since quickselling an unusual can sometimes take 3 days +, not including the fact that the trade as we both have said was poorly bumped)

Also, your proof that the sale was not a quicksale goes as this:

"http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25341569 lowered to B/O 5 buds within a week (buds @10 when last unsold = 50 keys"

Basically: Selling the hat for 5 buds, the current price of the hat. Not a quicksell price or an attempted quicksell.

"http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25442399 relisted for 4 buds at march 21th, closed/sold at march 26/27th. buds @ 8-9.5 (leaning towards 8 over this time) "

Basically: This was close to a quicksell price and essentially an attempted quicksell. It sold within 6 days.

So unless 6 days is too long for a quicksell(unusual) to be considered a quicksell (with poor bumping) then it should be considered a quicksale.

"What is a quicksell?

Time is only one factor used to determine a quicksell. If a hat sells within 1-2 days for its b/o in pure, one should be suspicious."

Quoted from a guide by Polar

There's many factors that can determine whether or not something is a quicksale or not. I generally ignore sales that instantly happen for the reason of them being a quicksale.

"More important is how a sale relates to other sales. If a hat sells for less than commonly offered values in pure or unusuals or for less than common trade points, that is likely a quicksell."

This is also mentioned about determining a quicksale.

using this, I have:

A sale at 28 (pure, non lv1/7 nonduped max heads count as pure)

A B/O of ~35 that stood for about a week

A sale consisting of low-tier unusuals and strange items at 40

A sale for an unusual (after overpay 65)

So the sales are 28-40-65. That alone already indicates that 65 is quite far off (difference of 25 with the 40 sale, compared to a difference of 12 between 28-40)

The B/O of 35 that stood for a week is additional evidence that 65 is an overstated value. Apparently it can sell for that value, but the COMMON TRADING POINT (the thing we're trying to find here) is far below 65.

[Edit]

If you want more information about sales that should be excluded for being a quicksale, try checking out other suggestions of experienced suggesters and see how they determine outliers.

(Also I forgot to post the link I took the quicksells from, here; http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/6033-guide-for-unusual-price-suggestions/ )

You continue to avoid the counter argument that the post was poorly bumped. Poorly bumped is essentially unadvertised unless someone is searching specifically for that hat, the chances of which are slim.

Thats not including the sale in which I bought the hat.

Either way I think the hat needs a conservative drop, not removing 2/3 of the hats original price.

Also the sale with my friend would not have occurred with any person that was not my friend. I valued all of the items in the trade at their market value or slightly above for reasons.

The AA was 15 keys, I quicksold it for a bud in under >3< days and closed the trade for it 3 days later. (Buds were around 10-12 keys at the time of that sale, not 7. Not sure where you got 7)

I valued the Samureye at 1.8 buds >coincidentally its backpack value at the time< (At the time of the trade with my friend; buds were 12 keys) 1.8*12= 21.6 *.9=19.44~19 keys

I put the mg at 3 keys (parts) and the shotgun at 8 keys (I sold it for around 9 keys in items as well)

15*.9 (AA) = 13.5

13.5 + 19 + 8*.9 + 3*.9 + 6*.9 averages to around 48.3 if you round after. 60-48=12; 48-28 = 20

Clearly 28 is an outlier, my suggestion might be wrong but i highly doubt this suggestions mega price drop is better.

Edit: Forgot to add the cash in the sale (Also you forgot to provide proof for the cash): I added $5, about 2 keys.

48-2=46, 28 is still an outlier

You counter your own counter-argument by pointing out people saw your trade and saying people were 'clearly interested'.

"ither way I think the hat needs a conservative drop, not removing 2/3 of the hats original price." it is okay that you think that, but the sales say otherwise.

"I valued items in the trade at their market value or slightly above for reasons" again, feel free to value items at whatever price you want, but its not an indication of their actual current value. Example: if I 1:1 my hat to another and value my hat at 100 keys, it doesnt mean either of the hats are actually worth 100 keys.

As for the value of the hats: We're looking for their current value in pure, not their value in hats priced long ago. You keep repeating what you value your hats at, but what you value them at is not relevant. what they actually sell for is what matters. Theyre not 1/1 in existence hats, you dont have a monopoly. Other people can sell them too.

providing minis is necessary to show that outdated or unpriced hats have the potential to still sell for their old value (and if not, at what value they sell at now). Again, selling a hat in 3 days is NOT an invalid sale to use. I too saw it was a fast trade and therefore compensated by adding a higher value trade and averaging it out. using either the high or the low value instead of the averaged value makes a difference of ~2.5 keys (which can work in either ways) Technically its valuing it at 37.5-42.5, which averages out to 40 (which is more accurate than minis require, I just did additional work.)

You say I "continue to avoid" a counter point of you, but you continue to stay completely oblivious to anything I say, as well as to the essence of price voting, which is to indicate a common selling point for the item at current time You're mainly countering facts with opinions and your personal values.

alright let me explain my stupid outpost trades :P

This is the one i had open for a while at 5 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25341569

the only reason this trade was kept open at 4 buds was i had 2 collectors however 1 fell out the guy with the checkmark in the comments the other said it looked like i was in a rush so he told me it would take a while.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25442399

made this on a saturday when i had time 1 afternoon and said i was done with the game and lowered everything but the samu(at 4 buds)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25492221

I proceded to get an unusual server sell the bonk withen 5 mins and someone offered me a max for it which is lower than 4 buds but i wanted out so i took it.

My conclusion:

the hat is not worth 5 buds that can seen from 0 offers in like a week or something, however i believe 4 was not quite a quicksell but a good discount. a max though priced at 3 buds at the time was a defenite quicksell since my first efforts at selling the unu in weeks was done in like 10 mins

"4 buds is not quite a quicksell"

you sold for an item currently worth 4 buds

I think you just countered ALL the above.

As I just told your friend: What your selling intentions are, is not relevant. "quickselling" a hat and having it unsold at a certain B/O does NOT mean the sale is not usable because it was a quicksale.

at the time the max was 3 buds i already explained that this is all dealing with at the time

when the third outpost was posted it was sold within 2 days (like an hour on a trade server) which fits your definition of a quicksell ( I AM IN NO WAY SAYING THAT 4 BUDS IS A QUICKSELL i am saying that the max which is worth 3 buds is a quicksell

On a complete side note i am confused why backpack after getting rid of the currency buds is still using old prices of buds to price unusuals. Theoreticly it should wait for new sales to start pricing items. Then again this is why im getting out of this game the economy is being disregarded by those that can fix it.

I already addressed your first point, not gonna repeat.

your second point is incorrect. Check times at which you opened your trade and the items history. Im sure you 'value' those 6 days at 2 days.

your 'side note' is the mere reason these suggestions happen. "it should wait for new sales". LOOK, NEW SALES. Im using them to price the hat after the buds crashed. Buds were formal currency before, therefore its unfair to use current bud values in pricing a trade that happened a month ago. (hell, if it wasnt for that fact, even my suggestion would overstate this hat's value. even a 5 bud bo is currently only 30 keys, which means according to that logic, its UNSOLD for 3 weeks at 30 keys.)

You can leave your noble knight's talk about 'saving the economy' or 'fixing' it. The economy is CHANGING. not dying. We did not abandon the full economy or producs from the US after the great market crash of 1929. it just sucked for those that went bankrupt. We did not abandon the oil market after the oil price crash in the late '70s. we dealt with it. We did not abandon the real estate market after it crashed in the crash earlier this century. A mass inflation/deflation is not equal to a dead economy.

I'm gonna concede because i'm fairly certain you'll win anyways since i'm a whitebelt.

I needed a reminder on why I don't make suggestions.

As for this thingy. You forgot some proof but eh who cares. No one. Forgot about that.

I don't care for talks about the economics but I feel obligated to remind you that the Great World Wide market crash of 1929 was fixed (US side anyways) By world war 2 and massive reform. I see no reform or World War coming to tf2 in the great future, given the tf2 market hasn't really crashed either but you analogized it as such.

I (should) feel bad for the guy that sold his GE All class for this though. Someone probably outta tell him bout' dis before it gets accepted.

Edit: I'm still right.

*sighs* it has nothing to do with the fact that you are a white belt. Im a relatively new suggester myself. I do not (and will never) claim Im right because of the amount of accepted suggestions I have.

You dont have to remind me what happened after that crash, I even indicated it got back up. but it was a side note anyway, Im allergic to people complaining about 'dead' economy etc.

You can claim youre right and act like the victim by saying things like "I needed a reminder on why I dont make suggestions" and "eh you forgot this non-existent proof" [to which I want to say that you accidentally confirmed your sale during the discussion, so I guess Im right on that one after all] and pretend Im a monster overthrowing your suggestion, but i want to remind you I replied to your suggestion with the intention to help you.

Thats basically what everyone would say.

Gonna ignore that because there's nothing productive to say about the economy.

I'm not victim to anything nor am i claiming it and nor should that statement sound like a cry for victimization. Its a statement of fact alluding to how I sometimes forget why I dislike certain aspects of backpack.tf.

I didn't confirm your 'idea' of my sale, I did confirm the 'sale' that actually occurred between me and my friend. In my mind i was getting 48-50 some keys worth of items and if my friend had paid in pure I would have asked for 48-50 keys, not 40 which is what you decided the entire sale was worth. In my opinion i got about 50 keys, and as you've stated what i think i got is irrelevant to the suggestion however you also lowered the prices of the unusuals in the sale drastically from what i was valuing them at(i was valuing them at their market value, so its not one of those 'oh i think this is worth 200 keys so this hat is worth 200 keys' i didn't pull prices willy nilly i looked them up and took them at market price)

You're not a monster overthrowing a suggestion, i'm curious to see how many people will side with my part of the argument and downvote versus people that will side with yours.

You replied with the intention to help and i tried to understand your logic however i still consider 1 sale to be both unprovable and a slightly biased sale (the one with my friend) and the other to be a quicksell because it sold quickly at a quicksell price. Yes you said it has to sell in under 2 days or so but the trade was poorly bumped (Notice, a fact you have tactfully ignored everytime i mention it) and given how quickly it sold on the trade server i consider it a quicksell. Maybe if you could get several other people of notability in this realm to explain to me how a poorly bumped trade done in under 6 days at a quicksell price on a hard to sell unusual is not a quicksell then i'll rethink it some more. Until then i'm going to go study for exams.

you confirmed the sale and what you priced it at etc. but earlier on you said something like 'you cant find this proof' and 'cash was involved which you can never prove', but the way you describe it makes it seem like there wasnt. THAT is what I meant. If there was actually cash involved, by all means, let me know how much and Ill lower the value of this sale.

As for the values: Im sure you checked them and that they were worth that at that time, that doesnt take away the fact that the hats are outdated and require minis to show their current value.

As mentioned to your friend: this discussion is pointless since we disagree with each others pricing methods.

There was cash involved however its impossible to prove anything, that was part of the bias. I could've said anything, right now i could say "oh he gave me $500 too for the hat you need to add that too" but i can't prove it, neither can you, thats why i wanted to omit the sale to begin with.

Just for funzies though.. He gave me $200 extra dollars for the hat outside of tf2 and i gave him a 5 in return, thats why i stated the 5, i must've forgot to factor in the $195 somewhere silly me.

Outdated, sure. I can agree with that. I guess i was getting less than i thought i was. Not that i care really.

I think we even disagree on what we disagree on. I disagree with how you determine a quicksell. Not necessarily how you determined the prices.

Also you still never replied to my fact about it being poorly bumped. I've mentioned that at least 5 times now.

I have replied to it several times, you overlooked it. on the money note: forgive me, but Im not going to believe you 'mentioned' 5 and 'forgot' about 200. as stated before, I find it too hard to believe someone that is cashing out will invest real money in a tf hat (let alone$200). it also makes no sense that he gives you 200 where you give him 5 in the same trade.

[edit]

This discussion is over.

He had 2 100 dollar bills he needed to get rid of, i had a 5, we valued the hat at 195 dollars more than what he gave me. also he was cashing out to buy csgo stuff, so real life money seems irrelevant.

quick internet tip, don't 'say' a discussion is over. If you want it to be over don't reply. Saying a discussion is over is like saying "I'm right but I want you to stop saying why you think i'm wrong because i don't read what you say and making up unrelated responses is tough"

"you sold for an item currently worth 4 buds" "I already addressed your first point, not gonna repeat."

am i correct that you should take it at the price of the max at the time which was 3 buds it does not matter what it is currently worth it is the time of the sale.

"your second point is incorrect. Check times at which you opened your trade and the items history. I'm sure you 'value' those 6 days at 2 days."

In case you failed to read let me restate this http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25442399 this trade was open for 6 days because i had 2 collecting offers at 4 buds so i felt no need to lower the price. if you have never sold an unusual i can not explain to you how difficult it is to sell a hat for only pure let alone the fact it is considered 3rd gen a series no one buys. considering i had 2 collecting offers in only 6 days on lowball outpost that's not bad, so i will state it again i had a hat which got no offers at 5 buds (so clearly to high) lowered to 4 buds for pure only basically (think i had overpay is cool but i don't think i looked at any cause i decided i didn't want it just kept it there in case i got a better generation effect) for 6 days, decided i was lowering my other unusuals and with a new mindset made a new trade http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25492221 where i sold all of these on trade servers. your point about the 6 days to 2 days you still fail to see that I DIDNT SELL IT FOR 4 BUDS my frkn goodness i sold it for 3 therefor the trades are voided for time as they had an inaccurate price (didn't sell at that price). i received an offer at 3 buds at my first attempt to sell at any other place than outpost. Therefor the 2 days meets the criteria since it is disassociated with the 4 buds. I restated my self more than 4 times if you don't understand what i am saying i will not be replying again.

my side note venture was about how everything in this economy is going down. I was making a hint that about the fact that people that control the economy (ref with valve) are not taking simple steps to stop inflation. I also fail to see why pricing was not changed when buds were gone away with. which leads me to my second point you claim new sales and yet you use sales when buds were stable at 12 keys to the point they fell of the cliff, these are not new sales, new sales would be after getting rid of buds and strictly using keys and buds as a promo item like the horace or a bills hat. You scoff at me with my "noble talk" and yet you try to use examples from an open economy and try to impose them onto a controlled economy. No matter how much you dont like it valve controls tf2's economy completely. mass inflation is not equal to a dead economy your right it showing a weak economy that is unstable and likely to go through a very rough patch.

I should take the max price in KEYS, not in buds. the max price in KEYS is (roughly) the same as back then, except it is NOW 4 buds because buds went down.

I know how unusual trading works. I know how gens work etc. ive done plenty of it. the fact that it is hard to sell for pure is only an additional indication the price stated as your B/O is high. (note that suggestions are giving an indication to how much a hat averagely sells for in pure.)

I also dont 'fail to understand' what youre saying with your trade-server-3-bud-not-4 thing, I just disagree and have shown the reason why. You restating has nothing to do with whether or not I understand something or not.

The discussion is pointless, since we disagree with each others pricing methods.

I am going to explain the beginning part real drawn out to either see if my reasoning is flawed or to show you what your saying wrong

Buds were 8 keys when i sold the samu (price suggestion was 9.5 recently accepted near my sale was 8 (slightly after))

so at the time with buds at 8 keys the max was worth 3 buds (http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5514b13fb98d88ac368b47f1) this is based off the suggestion with buds at 9.5 keys so at the time of selling it was worth 3 buds my confusion is since buds have dropped and it is now 4 or 4.5 or whatever why the heck are you throwing the current price of it and trying to prove its not a quicksell with it at its new price when you should base it off the price of it at the time to prove it was/not a quicksell

the second point somehow you managed to completely misunderstand again for like the 3rd time im done

The rest of this i will be leaving up to polar or whoever takes these suggestions i am sick of replying when you miss everything i say.

I never asked you to reply in the first place. Im not missing everything I say, you just keep repeating the same over and over again, and I tell you why I made the decisions I made. logically, since I made this decision and still agree with that decision, I will reply the same to you even if you repeat your story 10000 more times.

Since you're getting sick of replying and Im kinda getting sick of repeating myself, I guess we should stop the discussion (as I tried to do with my last comment)

For your first sale, you missed out The Big Kill(~6.9 keys) that was added as well http://backpack.tf/item/1279703257. And also the strange market gardener has a number of parts that adds up to ~3.3 keys instead of 0.2.

Now to the pricing part, looking at the most recent sale, http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25737949 Sold for Miami Nights Scot Bonnet(69 keys * 0.9 = ~62 keys) + 8 keys + Professional killstreak Iron Curtain Kit . Easily more than 70

So we have sales at 28, ~50 keys(Fix the first sale for a better value) , 64 keys and 70+ keys(Most recent sale).

With such discrepancy in sales, I would just ignore the seller that kept dropping his b/o and call the 28 and 70+ keys sales outliers and form a range with Sale #1 and 64 keys sale.