Suggestion: Roboactive Hotrod at 40 keys

Price Suggestion

~100 keys

robo

184 votes up

18 votes down

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This suggestion was closed Sun, 26 Apr 15 13:31:01 +0000 by the submitter.

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Comments

"Countermanipulationmobile 2.0: Electric boogaloo"

3 in existence

1: http://backpack.tf/item/1662727012

2: http://backpack.tf/item/2505884752

3: http://backpack.tf/item/1658759717

The sales

Sale 1:

Sold with a B/O of 8 buds (~44), cant trace what really happened.

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048750872?time=1427855107 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048750872?time=1427871600 after

buyer:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197961309499?time=1427785200 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197961309499?time=1427871600 after

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25370795 had a B/O of 8 buds set at march 14th (10 keys (actually 11, but 10 very soon after) Sold at april 1st (buds @5.5)

44*0.9= ~40

-> 40 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for miami brown bomber (74) + pfetti capotain (11) + flies fukaa (13)

Buyer:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119629032?time=1422281100 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119629032?time=1422345600 after

Seller:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198042422220?time=1422221090 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198042422220?time=1422345600 after

Histories:

hotrod: http://backpack.tf/item/2505884752

bomber: http://backpack.tf/item/2147919062

capo: http://backpack.tf/item/1558687092

Fukaa: http://backpack.tf/item/303354901

0.9*(11+13+74) = 88.2, rounding to 88

-> 88 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for 6 buds (~78)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198124846866?time=1421913600 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198124846866?time=1422043870 after

buds@13 at time of the sale, 6*13 = 78. No overpay since buds were still formal currency at the time.

-> 78 keys

Sale 4:

Sold for with a ton of CS:GO stuff I dont know anything about for a secret crone

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068634500?time=1422862912 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068634500?time=1423209600 after

No clue how to price the CS:GO stuff. Additionally I saw this trade being used to price the crone, so excluding it.

Sale 5:

Sold for.. ehh.. wat.

Seller:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088459962?time=1421625549 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088459962?time=1421654400 after

Buyer:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062753625?time=1421481600 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062753625?time=1421568000 after

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24320370 trade

No SCM trade, probably irl money deal.

Minis:

Mini fukaa:

sold for a bud (~12) + S. spec ks shotgun (~1.1):

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198042422220?time=1422806004 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198042422220?time=1422864000 after

http://imgur.com/ogw9Ivi S. spec ks shotgun averagely sells for ~2-3€ (avging to 2.5 => ~1.1 key)

12+1.1 = 13.1

Taking 13

Sales at:

40 (March 31th)

78 (Jan 23rd)

88 (Jan 27th)

Oultiers and why

2 old sales before the great bud crash (one of them in buds) at 78/88, and a recent sale (week ago) with a B/O of 44 (8buds@5.5), after overpay 40, which took two weeks to sell.

This hat is two years outdated, which explains the severity of this drop. Even if it was priced in january after the two sales, it should be repriced after the crash with the new sale. Thats why Im considering 78/88 outliers and go with 40. Advices welcome!

[EDIT] Note that the previous suggestion was made at 6 buds at the time: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/51cd9b504bd7b8be38000007

Constructive criticism welcome!

~Foamy :3

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/55251b89ba8d8860538b4a13 - just throwing the effect comparison out there. Im surprised ra is less than half of af.

AF's sales are all older, this one has one more recent sale (one after the actual bud crash). I did that suggestion myself too.

many traders didnt knew about the actual crash though.they learn about it after trying to sell their buds.

in the trade for the csgo items the hotrod was valued at 8 buds pure which at the time were 13 keys each. so that sale was 104 keys. also um why is your suggestion 40 when you have sales for much higher. it seems like 40 was more the outlier. 88 and 78 plus my 104 are much closer than 40 and even 78... just seems a little odd.

Because it was used to price that hat, i cannot use it to price this (since that would mean the suggestions influence each other). The reason I decided on taking 40 is because that sale is far more recent and had a B/O quite some under the 78/88 for a significant time. Recent development in suggesting has shown that sales older than two months are far less accurate than recent sales. Several mods have even requested to not use sales older than two months at all (if possible. sometimes you cannot avoid it). Given the absolute figures it seems off, but I think it makes sense given the buds crash (especially since the B/O was listed in buds when they were heavily crashing)

agree and downvote.40 seems like a quicksell'

Id believe it would be a quicksale if it hadn't been listed with that B/O for such a long time. Its a tricky one for me since this as a whole shows this is in dire need of a drop. My problem with pricing it at 78/88 is that the sales are so old, especially considering a far more recent sale has occurred. As mentioned above, it is generally preferred to avoid using sales older than two months wherever possible. If this last sale would not have happened, it wouldve been the only choice (since theyre technically not expired yet). If this last sale would have happened in the same period as the other two sales, Id have considered it an outlier for obvious reasons. I guess for now Ill wait and see.

what is the time period the b.o was at that?ppl don't bother checking out buds prices daily they thought of them as a steady currency but it is proven a bubble.you need to calculate what his b.o would be in keys converted from the buds price at that given time.

nevermind I just checked the dates of the trade.many ppl where in a hurry to get rid of their buds that day.they just offered to unaware sellers their b.o in pure or what they thing was pure,serves them right for asking for buds in my opinion but nevertheless is a bit of a shark situation. lot of my friends drop their buds and flip them to unusual hats that day by tracking unaware ppl for the said bubble.I am more than possitive now that this is an outlier and a situational sell. I wouldn't take it into account.

The manipulation of prices

The highballing of effect

Seriously, go away.

You're the manipulator with your buddy from the AF hotrod. You make suggestions in prices thrice the value you bought the hat for and about twice as much as what youre selling them for. You make proofless suggestions. And you have the dirty gut to call me a manipulator. I dont want this hat, I have no reason or profit from it whatsoever to price this hat at a lower (and more realistic) value. In fact, I dont give a damn what this hat is worth. I price hats here to give the community a REALISTIC idea of the CURRENT value of the hat. You and your buddy own them and thus want to increase them so you can make profit off of it. THAT is manipulating.

If you have criticism, provide constructive criticism instead of putting a valueless empty sentence here.

if you have counter proof, go ahead and suggest. Key word in that sentence is PROOF by the way, so if you do, provide evidence. In that light, dont bother, all hat's histories are here and everyone can check and see these were the sales.

Dammmm foamy.

Roasted and Toasted

that's some thorough proof

we have:

pure of 40

3 hat sale at 88

pure sale at 78

bulk csgo sale

irl cash monis

if you assume that the quickseller's price remained in buds and the value in keys changed as buds dropped, he initially started quickselling at 88, and was only available at 40 for under a day, being 64 before then. In that one day his price dropped almost a third of its value, which is probably why someone picked it up and he accepted (it sold only a few hours after the bud suggestion passed)

idk tho, we'll have to see what a mod thinks, but imo 78-88 is fairer

I just checked, and a new sale has occurred after I suggested.

It sold for a peace sign mancer mask (11m outdated at ~78, got a mini on it at 57)

0.9*57 = ~51. I guess 40 might be too low, but it supports that 78/88 is fairly high.

Closing this now; Ill probably resuggest soon