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This is now in a private backpack, so I don’t think it will be sold again soon.
Sale 1: (outlier, novice trader)
Sold for an Australium SMG plus sweets ~1
(1*0.9) + 9 = 9.9 rounding to 10 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24973844
Seller Before: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155627042?time=1423641600
Seller After: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155627042?time=1423728000
Sale 2:
Sold for an Orbiting Fire Allbrero
(45.5*0.9) = 40.95 rounding to 41 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25282600
Seller Before: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198014463673?time=1426316400
Seller After: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198014463673?time=1426402800
Notes:
Can’t find a recent sale from the histories I can find for the Orbiting Fire Allbrero, so I can’t do a mini. If anyone has premium and would care to see if there is a recent sale, then please do :)
Conclusion:
Sales at 10 and 41 keys, calling 10 an outlier and taking the final price at 41 keys.
Yeah, these are probably the only sales we're gonna have to work with. I'll look for a mini for you though.
Yes this is a 1 of 1 hat and the only other sale I am using in a different suggestion for an unpriced hat so it would create a paradox of infinite overpay if I used it here :P