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7 months old price.
Sales :
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119574760?time=1428649200
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119574760?time=1428994800
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24867066
Sold for a strange pro machina (~16 keys) + some painted hats (~2 keys).
A total of ~18 keys.
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095280456?time=1426057200#page1 - before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095280456?time=1426230000 - after
Sold for a smoking regg.
A total of ~17 keys (the guy who sold the regg for the modest also had a C/O of 17 pure and a B/O of 19 http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25156640 )
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095280456?time=1426402800 - before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095280456?time=1427439600 - after
Sold for a steaming swatter.
A total of 12 keys, outlier.
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073756672?time=1428217200 - before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073756672?time=1428303600 - after
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25506010
Sold with a duped p. fetti sack (~9.5 keys) for a morning glory bombing (35 keys) (was offered on the bombing so no overpay. The price of the bombing would usually be 37 keys, but B/O was 35 keys).
A total of ~25 keys. (rounding down)
Mini for sack :
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25616592
Sold for 9-10 keys (couldn't confirm the exact amount in bp histories)
Current trades :
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23479319
Was offered either a stormy tin gallon (~16 keys) and sweets or a steaming luch (old price but seems ~16-17 keys).
http://backpack.tf/classifieds/?item=Modest%20Pile%20of%20Hat&quality=5&particle=31
Classified listings :
1 seller for 23 keys, 1 for 25 keys.
Conclusion :
Current price is too high and no longer reflects the market. 3 sales ranged between 17 and 25 keys suggests it's the most appropriate range. The sales, along with current and past outpost offers as well as a few outpost quickbuyers shows that the 12 keys sale is too low.
Just curious... why is 12-13 an outlier but 25 not? 12-13 is closer to 17 and 18 than 25 is?
The 12 keys sale is out of range due to the fact that there are higher current and past offers. In addition, there are also quickbuyers for a higher price ( http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25521939 , http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25674778 for example, paying 15 each).
The 25 keys sale is in range since offers edge closer to 25, up to 20 keys (listed a 17 pure offer up there as well a ghosts copper (listed 31-36 keys, outdated, probably 20+ http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25377280 ) .
I also tend to go with the more conservative drop, which is 17-25 rather than 12-17.
Ah ok, makes sense. Thanks for explaining. :)
No problem :P