Suggestion: Overclocked Lucky Shot at 11–15 keys

Price Suggestion

~14.5 keys

overclocked

216 votes up

16 votes down

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This suggestion was closed Sat, 25 Apr 15 20:48:47 +0000 by the submitter.

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Comments

"Quickly overclocked to make this suggestion"

Typed too fast, accidentally suggested 11-1115 :D, but nobody saw that

Needed this price for a mini, might as well price it

3 exist, found two, one of which has recent sales:

http://backpack.tf/item/2612972189

http://backpack.tf/item/1651990659

The sales:

Sale 1:

Sold for 14 keys pure

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071707237?time=1427698800 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071707237?time=1427944300 after

-> 14 keys

Sale 2:

sold for 2 buds (11)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080185764?time=1427781286 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080185764?time=1427871600 after

-> 11 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for DP slick cut (~17)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088184471?time=1425911397 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088184471?time=1426057200 after

0.9*17 = 15.3, rounding to 15

-> 15 keys

Sale 4:

Sold for smoking hotties hoodie (~13*) + orbfire stuntman (~14)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091356631?time=1425703464 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091356631?time=1425801600 after

(13+14)*0.9 = 24.3, rounding to 24

The smoking hotties is outdated at ~20, but was put up for sale with a B/O of 13 by this seller:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25314225

-> 24 keys OUTLIER

Sale 5:

Sold with vivid connoisseurs + 8 keys for duped burning bucket

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089953006?time=1423341245 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089953006?time=1423382400 after

Using this for a mini on the duped bucket. Cant use it for this suggestion.

I ignored the sales involving the scammer shown in the history, as well as a few "sales" where it randomly vanishes.

The minis:

Mini slick:

Sold for TaW stuntman(~17):

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088184471?time=1427871600 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088184471?time=1428105685 after

Taking 17

Sales at:

11

14

15

24 exceeds the other sales by far, high outlier

Final range: 11-15

Constructive criticism welcome!

~Foamy :3

I sold mine for like 48 in unusuals, I can get a screenshot when I get home in like 7 hours

I mentioned your sale. you can still post a screenshot though. Regardless, its still going to be an outlier due to the frequent, far lower sales.

Mine also involved a bliz football helmet that was not mentioned due to the fact that I lost it in a crab 10 mins later, and the valuation of the hotties/stuntsman is off, I saw them as 14 and 15 respectively

I also bought it for 2 buds which was 24 keys at the time, perhaps that is enough to justify raising the range to 24?

I cannot use the bought one, since the previous owner is a marked scammer. Valuation of the hotties/stuntsman isnt off. the stunt is 14 keys (updated price) and you put the hotties up for sale at 13 afterwards. I could not find the football helmet, I can mention it if you want to. I think you just got a really good deal out of it given the other recent sales; regardless of whether additional items were involved, compared to the most recent sales, this is clearly still an outlier

Yea i can give you a screenshot of the football so you can use it and the guy wasn't a marked scammer when i bought it so i dont think that really matters

EDIT: http://i.imgur.com/0rzhOzT.png?1

Also i saw one up on outpost for 4 buds during the time i was selling mine which was taken down, I'm assuming that sold so maybe if you find that one it could produce more proof for price my sale

One more thing I remembered, is that I offered on him so no overpay should be applied.

one what, an overclocked lucky shot? I traced two out of three, and only this one has had recent sales. Note that adding this all up, I come to the conclusion that this sale had a higher value than the 3 more recent sales together, which only proves the fact that this is an immense outlier even more

Eh. I think 14-15 is better here.

hmm, yeah it might be. I kept the 11 included because it was still technically a pure sale, but I guess with the huge deflation of buds, sales using them might just be unaware sellers. Should I resuggest for the difference, or is this close enough?