Sale 1

Sold for duped scorching furious fukaamigasa = 67 * 0.9 = 60 keys

Sellers bp before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044512024?time=1427180400 (March 24th)

Sellers bp after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044512024?time=1427353200 (March 26th)

Sale 2

Sold for terror-watt el jefe (39-42), nuts and bolts defiant spartan (9-13), 1 bud (12 keys at time) and 7 keys = (41 +11) * 0.9 + 12 + 7 = 66 keys

Buyers bp before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044512024?time=1425283200 (March 2nd)

Buyers bp after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044512024?time=1425542400 (March 5th)

Sale 3

Sold for duped cloudy moon brain bucket = 52 * 0.9 = 47 keys

Sellers bp before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044512024?time=1425283200 (March 2nd)

Sellers bp after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044512024?time=1425542400 (March 5th)

Sale 4

Sold with pro aussie scattergun (37-43) for beams engineer's cap (34-37), green confetti pyros beanie (14) and stormy brainiac hairpiece (16) =

X + 40 = 35.5 + 14 + 16

X = (35.5 + 14 +16) - 40 = 26 keys - outlier

Sale 5

Sold for blizzardly hong kong cone (48-64) = 56 * 0.9 = 50 keys

Sellers bp before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065025130?time=1427439600 (March 27th)

Sellers bp after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065025130?time=1427526000 (March 28th)

Sale 6

Sold with spec killstreak aussie grenade launcher for duped burning demoman's fro - can't figure out a good mini for the fro, sales are all over the place, so leaving this one out

Sellers bp before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198003657326?time=1426230000 (March 13th)

Sellers bp after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198003657326?time=1426316400 (March 14th)

Sale 7

Sold for chiroptera venenata glasgow great helm = 60 * 0.9 = 54 keys

Sellers bp before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198015327603?time=1423814400 (February 13th)

Sellers bp after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198015327603?time=1424160000 (February 17th)

Sale 8

Sold for searing plasma modest (91) = 91 * 0.9 = 82 keys

Sellers bp before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055544256?time=1428908400 (April 13th)

Sellers bp after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055544256?time=1428994800 (April 14th)

Sale 9

Sold with terror-watt viewfinder (96) and 1 key in sweets for pe glasgow great helm (190) and ~4 keys in sweets = (190 + 4)*0.9 - (96 + 1) = 78 keys

Sellers bp before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198041368829?time=1424937600 (February 26th)

Sellers bp after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198041368829?time=1425024000 (February 27th)

Mini for duped scorching fukaamigasa:

Sold for harvest moon grenadiers softcap (71-77) = 74 * 0.9 = 67 keys

Sellers bp before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044512024?time=1428649200 (April 10th)

Sellers bp after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044512024?time=1429167600 (April 16th)

Mini for duped cloudy brain bucket:

Sold for pe trophy belt (55-60) = 57.5 * 0.9 = 52 keys

Sellers bp before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198096734571?time=1425024000 (February 27th)

Sellers bp after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198096734571?time=1425110400 (February 28th)

Mini for stormy brainiac:

Sold for kill-a-watt stately steel toe (15-18) + 1 key = 16 keys

Sellers bp before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198035582422?time=1424592000 (February 22nd)

Sellers bp after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198035582422?time=1424678400 (February 23rd)

Mini for green confetti pyros beanie:

Sold for blizzardly brigade helm = 16 * 0.9 = 14 keys

Sellers bp before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129379954?time=1428044400 (April 3rd)

Sellers bp after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129379954?time=1428303600 (April 6th)

Mini for pro aussie scattergun:

Average of ~$100 on scm for buyer

$85 for seller

100/2.30 (key price on scm) = 43 keys

85/2.30 = 37 keys

37-43 keys

Mini for venenata great helm:

Sold for searing plasma blighted beak (46-57) plus 1 bud (13 keys at time) = (51.5 * 0.9) + 13 = 60 keys

Sellers bp before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075396007?time=1421740800 (January 20th)

Sellers bp after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075396007?time=1422086400 (January 24th)

Mini on searing modest:

Sold for ge slick cut (50) and scorching magistrates mullet (47-55) = 101 * 0.9 = 91 keys

Sellers bp before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053134374?time=1428390000 (April 7th)

Sellers bp after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053134374?time=1428476400 (April 8th)

What in the heck that's an insane range

Ok so we have sales at 46, 50, 54, 60, 66, 78, 82.

Big range and big drop from the previous price.

4 on outpost with BOs of 100, 107, 60 and "offers":

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25703161

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25708125

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25553790

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25604195

60 key guy had an offer to pay BO in pure (waiting on keys) but only after a week and a half, and it has not sold yet.

Even though it is an enormous drop, seller at 60 which has not sold yet (though 2 weeks is not that old) suggests using 47 - 60 as the range. Asked some other suggesters and that's what they advised, so going with it. Sorry if the minis are a mess, this took me fucking ages. Feedback very welcome.

(Thanks Zapperzz and Mindacos for advice.)